A forecast of a close OpenAI–Anthropic race for model leadership

In October 2026, a commentator argued that OpenAI’s products had largely caught up with Anthropic’s by April and that OpenAI may have pulled ahead in capability with its July GPT-5.6 release, taking share and slowing Anthropic’s growth. The commentator expects Anthropic’s Opus 5.5 release to help its business rebound, predicts faster revenue growth if Fable 5.5 launches, and forecasts a close contest for model leadership over the following six to twelve months.