Expert AI forecasts reportedly underestimated capabilities progress each year

In a September 23 interim update on four years of studies, Research_FRI says experts underestimated AI capabilities progress each year, with superforecasters underestimating it even more. The group reports a mixed record on other measures: forecasts underestimated AI revenue but remain on track for AI’s share of electricity use. It also cites overestimates of how much mid-2025 models could help amateurs with biorisk-relevant lab tasks and how quickly self-driving cars would roll out. Research_FRI says it is too soon to judge forecasts of broader impacts such as GDP growth, major AI harms and deaths averted from disease.