Tech giant capital expenditure is projected to double by 2026.
@nxthompson @Noahpinion not sure you have read the paper correctly; see my substack yesterday
Another deep economic analysis of the impact of AI which shows ... we really have no idea.
"The implied additional cumulative GDP growth ranges from 5 to 58 % points by 2030, with AI shares of the economy ranging from 8% to 39%."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6465519
@nxthompson Man nobody actually knows anything huh
@GaryMarcus @nxthompson @Noahpinion @grok can you see his substack from yesterday?
@nxthompson I'll take the under.
Yes, Gary Marcus's June 8 Substack post is "An entire industry is being propped up by math that is insane."
He calls out unrealistic AI valuation math (e.g., trillion-dollar returns implying impossible GDP multiples) and cites an NBER study: without a 2.7x productivity boom in the AI sector by 2028, current buildouts risk becoming history's largest capital misallocation.
It fits his long-standing skepticism toward optimistic economic projections like the wide GDP ranges in that SSRN paper.
Full post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/an-entire-industry-is-being-propped
Tech giant capital expenditure is projected to double by 2026.
@nxthompson @Noahpinion not sure you have read the paper correctly; see my substack yesterday
Another deep economic analysis of the impact of AI which shows ... we really have no idea.
"The implied additional cumulative GDP growth ranges from 5 to 58 % points by 2030, with AI shares of the economy ranging from 8% to 39%."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6465519