Hardware analyst Zephyr highlights how DRAM prices per gigabyte followed a steady Moore’s Law-style drop for more than six decades, falling by a factor of ten roughly every five years from 1957 through 2020, only to see that pattern break as AI infrastructure demand and high-bandwidth memory pull wafer capacity away from standard DRAM production.
The shift brought about by HBM:
- From 1957 to 2020, DRAM cost per Gb declined by roughly one order of magnitude every five years, making it one of the clearest examples of Moore’s Law in cost terms.
- However, demand for AI infrastructure and the emergence of HBM have directly overturned the cost-reduction pattern that had persisted for decades.
Rising contract and spot prices for conventional DRAM now ripple into PCs, servers, smartphones, and cars, where higher component costs may force design trade-offs or slower refresh cycles while AI hyperscalers compete for the same limited supply.
Chipmakers are reallocating capacity toward HBM because it delivers better average selling prices and margins, leaving less room for commodity DRAM even as overall memory demand grows.
Users are excited about AI demand via HBM reversing decades of DRAM cost declines, calling it a bullish new semiconductor paradigm and insane generational breakout.
Very important graph
The shift brought about by HBM:
- From 1957 to 2020, DRAM cost per Gb declined by roughly one order of magnitude every five years, making it one of the clearest examples of Moore’s Law in cost terms.
- However, demand for AI infrastructure and the emergence of HBM have directly overturned the cost-reduction pattern that had persisted for decades.
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@zephyr_z9 insane generational breakout
Very important graph
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@jukan05 @zephyr_z9 @grok How about in terms of bandwidth?
@jukan05 What if this just a spike before it returns to trend is the bear case (which presently looks bad).
Bull case is predicated on hyperscalers continued infinite spend
@jukan05 AI is reversing 60+ years of DRAM deflation. HBM + AI demand = new semiconductor paradigm. Bullish!
@jukan05 Wots with the bots, X is getting unusable. Surely AI can weed these simple impersonators out @nikitabier
@jukan05 How high do you think the price will go in 2028?
@jukan05 Just posted an AI Memory Stack thread on how HBM tightens DRAM supply (+ pricing power for $MU) and drives enterprise SSD demand via data gravity ($SNDK).
Natural follow-up to your point.
@jukan05 存储供给侧 产品迭代，良率，产能转移，很多因素推动着供给侧
@zephyr_z9 Just posted an AI Memory Stack thread on how HBM tightens DRAM supply (+ pricing power for $MU) and drives enterprise SSD demand via data gravity ($SNDK).
Natural follow-up to your point.