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    Article Argues Humanoid Robots Will Lag Humans for Years

    Tech journalist shares analysis of why robots may lag human workers for years.

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    11 Sources, 29d ago, first seen 29d ago

    TLDR

    A tweet by Timothy B. Lee points to an article by chi_t_williams on understandingai.org. The post notes that robots can dance, do backflips, and run faster than Usain Bolt, raising concerns about mass unemployment. Lee states the article explains why it will take years, possibly decades, for robots to match humans. The linked source carries the headline Why humanoid robots won’t catch up to human workers any time soon and describes a deep dive into the current state of humanoid robotics.

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    11 Sources, first seen 29d ago

    Combined views

    153.3K

    11 Sources, first seen 29d ago

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    36 comments
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    89 reposts

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    11 Sources

    @binarybitsRobots can dance, do backflips, and run faster than Usain Bolt. This makes a lot of people worry about mass unemployment. But @chi_t_williams wrote an amazing article explaining why it'll take years — possibly decades — for robots to match humans. https://www.understandingai.org/p/why-humanoid-robots-wont-catch-up
    @random_walkerThis was a great article and I learned a lot from it. But while there's a lot of writing on robotics timelines, I've seen less on what happens once competent robots do inevitably arrive. US agriculture employment share dropped 50x because of mechanization. This is very different from the effect that automation has repeatedly been predicted to have — but failed to have — on white collar work. The reason is simple. Blue collar work is real work. There is a fixed, finite amount of it out there. So the effect of automation tends to be substitution. Besides, job displacement can happen without humanoids. Take warehouses. There are credible forecasts that by 2030, half of new warehouses will be built for primarily autonomous operation (much easier than replacing workers in existing warehouses with humanoid robots). After that, it takes 1-2 decades for the economics for force most existing warehouses to switch over. That's millions of jobs in the US alone. White collar jobs are extremely malleable in their definition and variable in demand. When AI starts to do what we used to do, we just switch to doing new stuff and redefine the job. And we produce lots more units of work. There's no real ceiling to the amount of software that can be written or legal work that can be done. I can't believe some "AI experts" tell young people to pursue blue collar occupations because AI will eat the white collar work. I want to pre-register that this will turn out to be exactly ass-backwards.
    @alexolegimas@random_walker Absolutely agree. Wrote about this towards the end of this piece: https://aleximas.substack.com/p/how-will-ai-driven-automation-actually
    @snewmanpvI really appreciate that AI image generators have gotten to the point where even a hopeless non-artist like me can translate ideas into visual reality. I kinda wrote the blog post below just as an excuse to create this cartoon.
    @Ben_ReinhardtRT @snewmanpv: I really appreciate that AI image generators have gotten to the point where even a hopeless non-artist like me can translate…

    11 Sources

    @binarybitsRobots can dance, do backflips, and run faster than Usain Bolt. This makes a lot of people worry about mass unemployment. But @chi_t_williams wrote an amazing article explaining why it'll take years — possibly decades — for robots to match humans. https://www.understandingai.org/p/why-humanoid-robots-wont-catch-up
    @random_walkerThis was a great article and I learned a lot from it. But while there's a lot of writing on robotics timelines, I've seen less on what happens once competent robots do inevitably arrive. US agriculture employment share dropped 50x because of mechanization. This is very different from the effect that automation has repeatedly been predicted to have — but failed to have — on white collar work. The reason is simple. Blue collar work is real work. There is a fixed, finite amount of it out there. So the effect of automation tends to be substitution. Besides, job displacement can happen without humanoids. Take warehouses. There are credible forecasts that by 2030, half of new warehouses will be built for primarily autonomous operation (much easier than replacing workers in existing warehouses with humanoid robots). After that, it takes 1-2 decades for the economics for force most existing warehouses to switch over. That's millions of jobs in the US alone. White collar jobs are extremely malleable in their definition and variable in demand. When AI starts to do what we used to do, we just switch to doing new stuff and redefine the job. And we produce lots more units of work. There's no real ceiling to the amount of software that can be written or legal work that can be done. I can't believe some "AI experts" tell young people to pursue blue collar occupations because AI will eat the white collar work. I want to pre-register that this will turn out to be exactly ass-backwards.
    @alexolegimas@random_walker Absolutely agree. Wrote about this towards the end of this piece: https://aleximas.substack.com/p/how-will-ai-driven-automation-actually
    @snewmanpvI really appreciate that AI image generators have gotten to the point where even a hopeless non-artist like me can translate ideas into visual reality. I kinda wrote the blog post below just as an excuse to create this cartoon.
    @Ben_ReinhardtRT @snewmanpv: I really appreciate that AI image generators have gotten to the point where even a hopeless non-artist like me can translate…