Epoch AI Says Huawei Stays Below 4 Percent of Nvidia AI Compute in 2026

Epoch AI posted its analysis of Huawei’s Ascend roadmap and domestic supply constraints. The institute concluded Huawei will deliver less than 4 percent of Nvidia’s AI compute in 2026. Chris McGuire, citing his earlier study, noted the same range of 2.1 to 4.1 percent for that year and described the two assessments as consistent. Jaime Sevilla retweeted the exchange. The attached bar charts in both posts show the projected gap widening when Huawei relies solely on its own HBM production.