/AI15h ago

Zephyr and Teortaxes project China's HBM capacity will hit 150,000 wafers per month by 2027, supporting 24 GW of AI compute

This challenges previous hawkish assessments of Chinese AI limits.

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#421Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)
Zephyr
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Zephyr@zephyr_z9#1471inAI

Also, CXMT isn't the only HBM manufacturer Huawei gets their supply from XMC Chinese HBM capacity will be in the 150k WPM range by mid to late 2027

Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

I have no idea where "2M HBM stacks" comes from. Now CXMT should be around 50-60K WPM for HBM. You get, what, 2TB HBM3E per wafer? 75PB needed per SuperCluster, 37.5 thousand wafers. 3 weeks of output. I may be way way off but it doesn't look like a bottleneck. @zephyr_z9

7:59 PM · Jun 5, 2026 · 51.7K Views
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Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

If HBM is the binding constraint and can all be utilized, this would mean China can ship like 24 GW of compute annualized by mid-late 2027 (using Huawei's specs as the baseline). Likely this is the upper range, but I think "1-2% of the US" Hawks cite is ruled out. Even 10% is.

Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Also, CXMT isn't the only HBM manufacturer Huawei gets their supply from XMC Chinese HBM capacity will be in the 150k WPM range by mid to late 2027

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Zephyr@zephyr_z9

They can probably get around 700GB-800GB from one D1a node wafer (HBM dies with TSVs) Most Chinese accelerators have 144GB of HBM So they can ship 400k-450k XPUs per month from 100k WPM capacity

Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Also, CXMT isn't the only HBM manufacturer Huawei gets their supply from XMC Chinese HBM capacity will be in the 150k WPM range by mid to late 2027

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Zephyr@zephyr_z9

Chinese CSPs have tendered for over 4.5GW of IT capacity this year

Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex

If HBM is the binding constraint and can all be utilized, this would mean China can ship like 24 GW of compute annualized by mid-late 2027 (using Huawei's specs as the baseline). Likely this is the upper range, but I think "1-2% of the US" Hawks cite is ruled out. Even 10% is.

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Participant in a complex world@Hopehope_G_hope

@zephyr_z9 Alot of Capacity is coming. Memory prices will tank.. anyway we don't want to pay ridiculous pricing for dram and nand

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brownricecatfarmland@brownricec66327

@zephyr_z9 >Chinese HBM capacity will be in the 150k WPM range by mid to late 2027

How much is it today you reckon ?

Isn't 950DT production constrained due to scarcity of HBM3 ?

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zhang hao@zhanghao869179

@zephyr_z9 That taking in count only chinese companies of HBM or foreign companies HBM capacity installed in china too?

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Ted@Riovipvip

@zephyr_z9 根据产能来看，长鑫和长存两家企业上市以后的相加的市值总和能达到万亿美元吗？和海力士、三星、美光的平均市值持平。

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