AIDrake equations and the rigor of AI-risk analysis
A user argues that Drake equations for AI risk remain unusually rigorous, calling that “really depressing” four years after developing their own.
TLDR
Writing on September 18, 2026, a user recalled that they and another person independently came up with Drake equations for AI risk four years earlier—a shared approach that led them to meet. They lamented that, in their view, this still counted as unusually rigorous analysis of the subject.
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Drake equations and the rigor of AI-risk analysis
A user argues that Drake equations for AI risk remain unusually rigorous, calling that “really depressing” four years after developing their own.