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    Timothy B. Lee Questions Long-Term AI Predictability

    Replies that superintelligent AI behavior over long periods differs from predictable star positions.

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    2 Sources, 25d ago, first seen 25d ago

    TLDR

    Tech journalist Timothy B. Lee replied to users @robertskmiles and @ohabryka that some world features permit confident forecasts, such as the relative positions of stars in a million years. He stated that questions about how superintelligent AIs will behave over the next million years are not comparable. Lee is the founder of the Substack Understanding AI and focuses his work on artificial intelligence and the economy. The post stands alone in the supplied evidence as his direct statement on the topic.

    Combined views

    406

    2 Sources, first seen 25d ago

    Combined views

    406

    2 Sources, first seen 25d ago

    7 likes
    7 likes
    2 comments

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    2 comments

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    2 Sources

    @robertskmiles@binarybits @ohabryka This is not always correct though, it's often possible to predict the end point more reliably than the intermediate. I can't predict what move alphago will make against me at all, but I can reliably predict it will eventually win
    @binarybits@robertskmiles @ohabryka Sure, some features of the world are predictable. We can make confident predictions about the relative positions of stars in a million years. I do not think questions like "how will superintelligent AIs behave over the next million years" is anything like this.

    2 Sources

    @robertskmiles@binarybits @ohabryka This is not always correct though, it's often possible to predict the end point more reliably than the intermediate. I can't predict what move alphago will make against me at all, but I can reliably predict it will eventually win
    @binarybits@robertskmiles @ohabryka Sure, some features of the world are predictable. We can make confident predictions about the relative positions of stars in a million years. I do not think questions like "how will superintelligent AIs behave over the next million years" is anything like this.