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    The geopolitical hurdles to pacing frontier AI

    A post discussing Dario’s call to “pace the frontier” questions whether enforceable international AI agreements are realistic, especially with China and Russia.

    Harry StebbingsHS
    Jeff Morris Jr.JM
    Dave McClureDM
    9 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    The post argues that getting democratic allies to agree on frontier AI would already be difficult, making broader international pacing agreements even harder to imagine. It also distinguishes among AI risks: it calls cyber risk real, views mass economic unemployment as overblown and says the danger of losing control of recursive agents is difficult to assess.

    Combined views

    124.2K

    9 Sources, first seen 20d ago

    Combined views

    124.2K

    9 Sources, first seen 20d ago

    139 likes
    20d ago
    first seen 20d ago
    139 likes
    50 comments
    22 saves
    21 reposts
    50 comments
    22 saves
    21 reposts

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    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

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    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    9 Sources

    Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbingsThe biggest news in tech this week: - Dario Calls to "Pace the Frontier" - Instinct Raising $1BN at $10BN & Meta Launches Muse - Miro Sells for $1.35BN After a $17.5BN Valuation - Mistral Raises €3BN My notes below with @jasonlk and @rodriscoll: 1. Summary of the Problems and the Solutions Cyber risk is real, mass economic unemployment feels overblown, and losing control of recursive agents is difficult to assess. Meanwhile, proposed solutions range from unlikely to practically impossible to implement. 2. Why Is It Overblown and Not Nearly as Dramatic as Anthropic Makes It? If the government truly believed a San Francisco lab had a 10% chance of destroying humanity, it would intervene immediately. The lack of intervention suggests authorities do not view extreme existential risk claims as an imminent threat. 3. Why Is It Bullshit, Dario, to Think We Will Have International Alignment on AI? Global coordination on frontier AI ignores geopolitical reality. Getting democratic allies to agree is difficult enough, while expecting enforceable alignment with China and Russia makes international pacing agreements even harder to imagine. 4. Is the Personal Assistant Market a Market Where You Can Build a Standalone Company? Standalone AI assistants face a fundamental question: can they build durable businesses while valuations race into the billions and platform incumbents pursue the same market? 5. Why Meta Might Just Win With Muse Meta has a structural advantage because it owns the infrastructure and underlying LLM. While competitors spend $3 to $4 per user on compute, Meta can deliver fast, capable agentic workflows without the same infrastructure burden. 6. Is Dario Simply Being Strategic Ahead of an IPO With His Pacing Argument? One interpretation is that Anthropic’s pacing argument is effectively an S-1 risk factor discussed in public. By addressing existential risk now, leadership can make it a debated, understood issue rather than a roadshow problem later. 7. Why I Would Not Invest in the New Instinct Round Standalone AI assistants face brutal economics when incumbents have their own models, infrastructure, and enormous resources. Subsidizing $5 to $10 per user can turn millions of users into a massive annual compute bill that venture capital must keep funding. (links in comments)20d
    Jeff Morris Jr.@jmj4. The AI industry is very doom and gloom this week, especially with Dario's letter. As some advice for some of the labs, focus on telling stories like AI x medicine... and areas of AI that are clearly positive for society. Nt sure why every AI lab is obsessed with talking about how many jobs they'll replace. It's honestly the worst brand positioning ever. These firms have infinite resources to find better storytellers, yet they love to focus on job replacement and things that sound scary for society and everyday people to hear.20d
    trading places@TradingVCsAI giants hit the breaks. @DarioAmodei says the industry needs to "pace the frontier." @sama and @elonmusk agreed. Dave and Aman aren't buying the official story. Plus: a Valuation Corner deep dive on @harvey, now worth $15.5B just months after its last round. Watch now 👇 [ Tech & VC News ] 03:07 ⁠- oil, interest rates, and inflation all up 06:25 - importance of reducing the deficit 08:13 ⁠- AI leaders hit the brakes @AnthropicAI @OpenAI @SpaceXAI 20:27 ⁠- why AI giants want to be regulated 25:22 - upcoming @ouraring IPO 28:34 ⁠- mega-round raises for a host of AI companies 38:09⁠ ⁠- tender offer boom [ Valuation Corner: Harvey AI @ $15.5B ] 43:34 - ⁠founder stories @winstonweinberg @gabepereyra 47:43 - ⁠breaking down the legal AI ecosystem 50:07 - ⁠⁠Harvey vs AI giants 57:30 - ⁠⁠tribute to a legend: Bill Draper thanks for watching another @TradingVCs with @davemcclure and @AmanVerjee19d
    Dave McClure@davemcclureRT @TradingVCs: AI giants hit the breaks. @DarioAmodei says the industry needs to "pace the frontier." @sama and @elonmusk agreed. Dave a…19d

    9 Sources

    Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbingsThe biggest news in tech this week: - Dario Calls to "Pace the Frontier" - Instinct Raising $1BN at $10BN & Meta Launches Muse - Miro Sells for $1.35BN After a $17.5BN Valuation - Mistral Raises €3BN My notes below with @jasonlk and @rodriscoll: 1. Summary of the Problems and the Solutions Cyber risk is real, mass economic unemployment feels overblown, and losing control of recursive agents is difficult to assess. Meanwhile, proposed solutions range from unlikely to practically impossible to implement. 2. Why Is It Overblown and Not Nearly as Dramatic as Anthropic Makes It? If the government truly believed a San Francisco lab had a 10% chance of destroying humanity, it would intervene immediately. The lack of intervention suggests authorities do not view extreme existential risk claims as an imminent threat. 3. Why Is It Bullshit, Dario, to Think We Will Have International Alignment on AI? Global coordination on frontier AI ignores geopolitical reality. Getting democratic allies to agree is difficult enough, while expecting enforceable alignment with China and Russia makes international pacing agreements even harder to imagine. 4. Is the Personal Assistant Market a Market Where You Can Build a Standalone Company? Standalone AI assistants face a fundamental question: can they build durable businesses while valuations race into the billions and platform incumbents pursue the same market? 5. Why Meta Might Just Win With Muse Meta has a structural advantage because it owns the infrastructure and underlying LLM. While competitors spend $3 to $4 per user on compute, Meta can deliver fast, capable agentic workflows without the same infrastructure burden. 6. Is Dario Simply Being Strategic Ahead of an IPO With His Pacing Argument? One interpretation is that Anthropic’s pacing argument is effectively an S-1 risk factor discussed in public. By addressing existential risk now, leadership can make it a debated, understood issue rather than a roadshow problem later. 7. Why I Would Not Invest in the New Instinct Round Standalone AI assistants face brutal economics when incumbents have their own models, infrastructure, and enormous resources. Subsidizing $5 to $10 per user can turn millions of users into a massive annual compute bill that venture capital must keep funding. (links in comments)20d
    Jeff Morris Jr.@jmj4. The AI industry is very doom and gloom this week, especially with Dario's letter. As some advice for some of the labs, focus on telling stories like AI x medicine... and areas of AI that are clearly positive for society. Nt sure why every AI lab is obsessed with talking about how many jobs they'll replace. It's honestly the worst brand positioning ever. These firms have infinite resources to find better storytellers, yet they love to focus on job replacement and things that sound scary for society and everyday people to hear.20d
    trading places@TradingVCsAI giants hit the breaks. @DarioAmodei says the industry needs to "pace the frontier." @sama and @elonmusk agreed. Dave and Aman aren't buying the official story. Plus: a Valuation Corner deep dive on @harvey, now worth $15.5B just months after its last round. Watch now 👇 [ Tech & VC News ] 03:07 ⁠- oil, interest rates, and inflation all up 06:25 - importance of reducing the deficit 08:13 ⁠- AI leaders hit the brakes @AnthropicAI @OpenAI @SpaceXAI 20:27 ⁠- why AI giants want to be regulated 25:22 - upcoming @ouraring IPO 28:34 ⁠- mega-round raises for a host of AI companies 38:09⁠ ⁠- tender offer boom [ Valuation Corner: Harvey AI @ $15.5B ] 43:34 - ⁠founder stories @winstonweinberg @gabepereyra 47:43 - ⁠breaking down the legal AI ecosystem 50:07 - ⁠⁠Harvey vs AI giants 57:30 - ⁠⁠tribute to a legend: Bill Draper thanks for watching another @TradingVCs with @davemcclure and @AmanVerjee19d
    Dave McClure@davemcclureRT @TradingVCs: AI giants hit the breaks. @DarioAmodei says the industry needs to "pace the frontier." @sama and @elonmusk agreed. Dave a…19d