AI doom estimates, government action and the case for caution
One post argues that AI catastrophe estimates depend on policy, while the chance of decisive government action depends partly on those estimates. A separate argument connects optimism about AI’s potential with caution about how to pursue it.
TLDR
One post argues that P(doom)—the probability of AI catastrophe—depends on society’s response. It suggests the risk is probably much higher under current AI policy than if governments take decisive action. But the likelihood of that action also depends partly on people’s estimates of the risk.
A separate post argues that people expecting an advanced-AI utopia should generally be less keen to pursue it through a careless route that leaves them at high risk of dying and losing that future.
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AI doom estimates, government action and the case for caution
One post argues that AI catastrophe estimates depend on policy, while the chance of decisive government action depends partly on those estimates. A separate argument connects optimism about AI’s potential with caution about how to pursue it.