The case for chip stocks over software stocks under short AI timelines

In a September 15, 2026 post, a user argues that short AI timelines would boost SMH. They claim hardware would remain a bottleneck, more than 90% of chip-sector value goes to existing companies, and no OpenAI- or Anthropic-like chip newcomer will emerge for years. They cite SMH at four times its 2021 highs versus a 20% gain for IGV. The argument builds on their June distinction: software will grow, but most current software stocks will not, with fast-growing software companies still privately held.