The case for chip stocks over software stocks under short AI timelines
A user argues that rapid AI progress would favor existing chipmakers because hardware would remain a bottleneck, while fast-growing software companies are still private.
TLDR
In a September 15, 2026 post, a user argues that short AI timelines would boost SMH. They claim hardware would remain a bottleneck, more than 90% of chip-sector value goes to existing companies, and no OpenAI- or Anthropic-like chip newcomer will emerge for years. They cite SMH at four times its 2021 highs versus a 20% gain for IGV. The argument builds on their June distinction: software will grow, but most current software stocks will not, with fast-growing software companies still privately held.
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