ChatGPT had 80% of global AI users six months ago. Today it’s 60%. Consumer AI is no longer a one-horse race. Here’s a break down.
In that time, Gemini grew from ~20% to ~50% of ChatGPT's unique users.
Claude grew from ~3% to ~20%.
In fact, Claude is the fastest growing website in the top 100 last quarter, followed by DeepSeek (#78, 105%) and Cricbuzz (#52, +69%).
Global website rankings:
– ChatGPT #5 (+11%QoQ)
– Gemini #15 (+27% QoQ)
– Claude #36 (+255% QoQ)
Active users:
Gemini has publicly reported 900M monthly active users and ChatGPT as 900M weekly active users. This number counts native desktop and mobile, so I (naively) use a multiple to scale up web traffic from SimilarWeb. This implies:
— ChatGPT: ~900M WAU, ~1.5B MAU
— Gemini: ~500M WAU, 900M MAU
— Claude: ~150-200M WAU, ~250-300M MAU
Geographically, Gemini has significantly caught up in non-English speaking countries, with 65-70% of ChatGPT in India, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, Korea and Vietnam while Claude in particular ironically shows remarkable growth in China (!).
VCs often ask startups "What if Google decided to do this?" and usually it's the wrong question. But when Google does indeed decide to put the full force of a company behind something, they're formidable.
This market is starting to look a lot less "winner takes all" and a lot more like cloud market (AWS/Azure/GCP) or wireless market (Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile) with 3 dominant players: a triopoly.
