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The case against sustained double-digit economic growth from AI

Demand is a key part of the argument, says a user endorsing an essay skeptical of AI-driven double-digit growth.

9 Sources, 20d ago, first seen 20d ago

TLDR

The essay “Will AI soon lead to double-digit growth?” offers a cautious answer: “Probably not.” A user sharing it argues that sustained double-digit economic growth won't happen no matter how quickly AI capabilities improve, singling out the essay's demand argument as particularly important.

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9 Sources, first seen 20d ago

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9 Sources, first seen 20d ago

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9 Sources

Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsThis is a good explanation for why we're not going to get sustained double-digit economic growth no matter how fast AI capabilities improve. The demand point is particularly important IMO. https://aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-soon-lead-to-double-digit20d
Buck Shlegeris@bshlgrs@binarybits @RyanGreenblatt Like, if AI leads to manufacturing output 10xing every year, this obviously has huge implications for human society and e.g. whether there are huge wars, regardless of how the chain-weighted GDP turns out.20d
Ryan Greenblatt@RyanGreenblatt@binarybits I think competition between humans (e.g. arms races), are very relevant to my views. Insofar as you agree there would end up being vast automated robots armies much more capable than human run forces, then we're on the same page. (There would be demand for this...)20d
Sar Haribhakti@sarthakghRT @binarybits: This is a good explanation for why we're not going to get sustained double-digit economic growth no matter how fast AI capa…19d
Toby Ord@tobyordoxfordI agree that there are strong diminishing returns on raw weight of consumer goods and that this will stop that weight exploding, even with very powerful AI. But I don't think that quite gets to the heart of what Ryan and Damon are modelling. If AIs can automate intellectual and robotic labour, such that they can build the robots that build more robot- and chip factories (and powerplants for them and mining for the materials for all this), then one could potentially get an explosion of these if there were much demand for it. While there isn't a demand for an explosion in tonnage of consumer goods, the autonomously exploding industry could produce things like: 1) an explosion in access to clean energy (e.g. solar panels over the sea) 2) an explosion in intellectual output, creating higher and higher quality consumer goods for which there might be an insatiable demand 3) an explosion in military hardware, where there might be an insatiable demand for positional advantage in an arms race So an industrial explosion measured in raw tonnage of the anthropogenic artefacts in the world (or in orbit) doesn't have to rely on insatiable demand for quantity of consumer goods.18d
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    9 Sources

    Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsThis is a good explanation for why we're not going to get sustained double-digit economic growth no matter how fast AI capabilities improve. The demand point is particularly important IMO. https://aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-soon-lead-to-double-digit20d
    Buck Shlegeris@bshlgrs@binarybits @RyanGreenblatt Like, if AI leads to manufacturing output 10xing every year, this obviously has huge implications for human society and e.g. whether there are huge wars, regardless of how the chain-weighted GDP turns out.20d
    Ryan Greenblatt@RyanGreenblatt@binarybits I think competition between humans (e.g. arms races), are very relevant to my views. Insofar as you agree there would end up being vast automated robots armies much more capable than human run forces, then we're on the same page. (There would be demand for this...)20d
    Sar Haribhakti@sarthakghRT @binarybits: This is a good explanation for why we're not going to get sustained double-digit economic growth no matter how fast AI capa…19d
    Toby Ord@tobyordoxfordI agree that there are strong diminishing returns on raw weight of consumer goods and that this will stop that weight exploding, even with very powerful AI. But I don't think that quite gets to the heart of what Ryan and Damon are modelling. If AIs can automate intellectual and robotic labour, such that they can build the robots that build more robot- and chip factories (and powerplants for them and mining for the materials for all this), then one could potentially get an explosion of these if there were much demand for it. While there isn't a demand for an explosion in tonnage of consumer goods, the autonomously exploding industry could produce things like: 1) an explosion in access to clean energy (e.g. solar panels over the sea) 2) an explosion in intellectual output, creating higher and higher quality consumer goods for which there might be an insatiable demand 3) an explosion in military hardware, where there might be an insatiable demand for positional advantage in an arms race So an industrial explosion measured in raw tonnage of the anthropogenic artefacts in the world (or in orbit) doesn't have to rely on insatiable demand for quantity of consumer goods.18d
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