Analyst Charts AI Labs' Current Capabilities And Projected 12-Month Acceleration
#980Lisan al Gaib@SCALING01Yeah this is why I want error bars for my plot
You just can't discount Google and Meta
It's only over until it's over (RSI achieved at OpenAI/Anthropic)
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01what do you think about this idea to chart current AI capabilities and factor in the acceleration/velocity of labs? don't read too much into the actual numbers, right now it's more a vibe of what model capabilities are right now and could be in 12 months today: Anthropic > OpenAI >> Google >> Meta > xAI >= DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba, Zhipu, ByteDance > MiniMax In 12 months I think it's pretty much the same except that all the labs that aren't on the frontier will fall behind by a couple of months depending on how much compute they have I would also really like to add error bars to that, because for some labs the outcome distribution is just much wider.
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01Yeah this is why I want error bars for my plot You just can't discount Google and Meta It's only over until it's over (RSI achieved at OpenAI/Anthropic)
the positions are based on vibes right now, and also capture more the coding domain rather than all domains
which is why the lag for frontier chinese models is ~6 months right now / GPT-5.2 or Opus 4.5 level
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01what do you think about this idea to chart current AI capabilities and factor in the acceleration/velocity of labs? don't read too much into the actual numbers, right now it's more a vibe of what model capabilities are right now and could be in 12 months today: Anthropic > OpenAI >> Google >> Meta > xAI >= DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba, Zhipu, ByteDance > MiniMax In 12 months I think it's pretty much the same except that all the labs that aren't on the frontier will fall behind by a couple of months depending on how much compute they have I would also really like to add error bars to that, because for some labs the outcome distribution is just much wider.
you could read off the current ranking by projecting on x-axis and future ranking by projecting on y-axis
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01what do you think about this idea to chart current AI capabilities and factor in the acceleration/velocity of labs? don't read too much into the actual numbers, right now it's more a vibe of what model capabilities are right now and could be in 12 months today: Anthropic > OpenAI >> Google >> Meta > xAI >= DeepSeek, Moonshot, Alibaba, Zhipu, ByteDance > MiniMax In 12 months I think it's pretty much the same except that all the labs that aren't on the frontier will fall behind by a couple of months depending on how much compute they have I would also really like to add error bars to that, because for some labs the outcome distribution is just much wider.