The MATCH Act singles out DUV immersion lithography tools as a strategic bottleneck and pushes for allied buy-in on denying parts and service to gear already running inside Chinese fabs, with a 150-day diplomatic window before any unilateral US curbs would kick in.
Sjoerdsma may grumble about the costs and indignity of subordination, but the Netherlands won't give up on its pivotal role in the tumultous ascent of Pax Silica. The Dutch stand unshaken in the race war. I think full DUV blockade will happen.
Imagine trying to litho-splain this beauty. I feel bad for the dude, actually this is embarrassing.
Roughly 1,400 ASML systems sit in Chinese facilities today; the bill would restrict calibration, software updates, and spare parts once the grace period ends, though the exact count and revenue hit stay unquantified in current text.
The Netherlands has already flagged concerns over extraterritorial reach, so whether allies align within the deadline or trigger standalone US enforcement remains unresolved pending final legislative moves.
Positive users see the MATCH Act blocking ASML exports to China as a boost for US firms like Micron, while negative users criticize it as likely to trigger Chinese retaliation and based on foolish framing.
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Looks like the next China-US export control showdown is near MATCH Act has been added to NDAA FY27 Things will start getting interesting after House passes it in July
Sjoerdsma may grumble about the costs and indignity of subordination, but the Netherlands won't give up on its pivotal role in the tumultous ascent of Pax Silica. The Dutch stand unshaken in the race war. I think full DUV blockade will happen.
I don't think it will pass cuz it will shut down a large chunk (25%-30%) of global DRAM and NAND output
Looks like the next China-US export control showdown is near MATCH Act has been added to NDAA FY27 Things will start getting interesting after House passes it in July
@zephyr_z9 @teortaxesTex How do we execute asset allocation when the global economy is in turmoil? https://www.mgfxs.com/links/426.html
@teortaxesTex I have generally seen them care about inflation and supply chains
reminder: "THEY CAN, AND THEY WILL" is a good heuristic. But on the other hand, who they? Trump admin is incoherent, Lutnick speaks for rogue anti-Chyna agencies. Trump already had 2 rounds of entity list attack and retreat when China shows MOFCOM teeth, he's not seeking a third
I think the Chinese will respond with the full or even expanded MOFCOM package (at least for the Netherlands) if this happens, plus seizure of all remaining Dutch assets (in retaliation for Nexperia too). But the stakes are too high to falter now… unfree nations must fall.
Sjoerdsma may grumble about the costs and indignity of subordination, but the Netherlands won't give up on its pivotal role in the tumultous ascent of Pax Silica. The Dutch stand unshaken in the race war. I think full DUV blockade will happen.
reminder: "THEY CAN, AND THEY WILL" is a good heuristic. But on the other hand, who they? Trump admin is incoherent, Lutnick speaks for rogue anti-Chyna agencies. Trump already had 2 rounds of entity list attack and retreat when China shows MOFCOM teeth, he's not seeking a third
I don't think it will pass cuz it will shut down a large chunk (25%-30%) of global DRAM and NAND output
@zephyr_z9 My investment strategy
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@zephyr_z9 My investment strategy
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@zephyr_z9 DRAM Hormuz.
@zephyr_z9 @grok how could it affect China’s semiconductor development?
@zephyr_z9 Yeah I mean, Trump seems unable/unwilling to restrain entity list style attacks on Chyna, but then they pass, retaliation happens, and he does a climbdown. maybe he's learned by now?
…depressing Trump is like a fish that keeps going after the bait (same exact bait) after losing one eye. Since the Liberation Day
Looks like the next China-US export control showdown is near MATCH Act has been added to NDAA FY27 Things will start getting interesting after House passes it in July
@zephyr_z9 Global memory shortage is about to cross over to consumer inflationary and go from X conversations to mainstream discussion.
It’s also close to becoming a headwind for capex spend overall.
Something will be worked out.
@zephyr_z9 great $MU
@zephyr_z9 What will happen IMO is that they'll try to pull a fast one by allowing ASML servicing only to Korean fabs.
Obv China won't allow this, but there will be a showdown first before any resolution.
@zephyr_z9 Maybe I’m being stupid but can’t see it in the NDAA text on http://Congress.gov
@teortaxesTex DUV无所谓,中国基本可以自己生产了
@teortaxesTex China is pretty close to DUV at scale. If this passes they’ll probably finish it up shortly.
@teortaxesTex 荷兰人这次是真想死磕到底了
@teortaxesTex 荷兰这次确实被拿捏得死死的