AI Researcher Predicts Major Economic Disruption And Backlash Within Two Years
Right now, AI services and companies are being valued at over 20 times the revenue they bring in. For example, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valued at over 800B. But they both have annual revenue run rates less than 30B.
Cas (Stephen Casper)@StephenLCasper🧵🧵🧵 At this point, I think it's only reasonable to fully expect some sort of major and unpleasant AI-caused economic disruption and popular backlash in the next year or two. I'm just not sure which kind.
Scenario 1 would be if the AI is indeed overvalued and the bubble pops. That would be a huge economic problem. Given how the US economy is essentially a bet on AI and elder care right now, a bubble could be pretty bad. A big one could mean a recession.
Cas (Stephen Casper)@StephenLCasperRight now, AI services and companies are being valued at over 20 times the revenue they bring in. For example, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valued at over 800B. But they both have annual revenue run rates less than 30B.
Scenario 2 would be if generative AI starts producing revenue commensurate with its valuation within a couple of years. But I don't see how that happens without causing a bunch of job losses. Maybe not permanently, but at least in the near term.
Cas (Stephen Casper)@StephenLCasperScenario 1 would be if the AI is indeed overvalued and the bubble pops. That would be a huge economic problem. Given how the US economy is essentially a bet on AI and elder care right now, a bubble could be pretty bad. A big one could mean a recession.
Overall, I think this line of reasoning has me betting pretty strongly on some sort of unpleasant economic disruption and some sort of popular backlash against big tech in the next few years, fueled by economic anxieties.
What do you think?
Cas (Stephen Casper)@StephenLCasperScenario 2 would be if generative AI starts producing revenue commensurate with its valuation within a couple of years. But I don't see how that happens without causing a bunch of job losses. Maybe not permanently, but at least in the near term.