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    Google's WeatherNext reportedly helped forecast Hurricane Isaias's Florida Panhandle path

    The post says WeatherNext predicted the storm's eventual location within 60 km up to three days before landfall.

    Peter BattagliaPB
    1 Source, 27m ago, first seen 27m ago

    TLDR

    The poster says initial evaluations found Google's WeatherNext was the most accurate model on Isaias's track, predicting a Florida Panhandle path while traditional physics models pointed nearer New Orleans. They say it helped National Hurricane Center forecasters flag potential wind and storm surge impacts. The post also cites a study of 200-plus tropical cyclones that found about a day's additional lead time for track and intensity, while noting performance varies by storm.

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    1 Source, first seen 27m ago

    Combined views

    109

    1 Source, first seen 27m ago

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    1 Source

    Peter Battaglia@PeterWBattagliaLast week, Hurricane Isaias made landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Our thoughts are with everyone affected and with the recovery efforts still underway. Earlier and more accurate forecasting can help protect communities by giving them more time to prepare, and we are grateful that Google’s WeatherNext model was able to assist the @NWSNHC 's expert forecasters. Based on initial evaluations, here's how our model supported the response to #Isaias: - Tracking the Hurricane’s Path: WeatherNext was the most accurate model on the storm’s track. While traditional physics models predicted landfall closer to New Orleans, WeatherNext correctly predicted a path further east. This allowed NHC forecasters to highlight the potential for wind and storm surge impacts in the Florida Panhandle from their very first forecast. - More Time to Prepare: Up to three days before landfall, our model consistently predicted its eventual location in the Florida Panhandle to within 60 km or less, supporting the NHC as they honed in on a track toward the Florida Panhandle and issued hurricane watches and warnings to give officials in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi more time to prepare. - Early Indications about Intensity: Early on, WeatherNext accurately predicted the intensification to a major hurricane. Alongside the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON, WeatherNext’s intensity forecasts helped NHC forecasters to predict that the Isaias would approach the coast as a category 2 hurricane from the very first advisory. Giving communities more time and more accurate warnings is critical for protecting lives and livelihoods. While model performance varies from storm to storm, Isaias reflects our broader findings. In our recent @Nature paper co-authored with NHC forecasters, evaluating 200+ global tropical cyclones, we found our model provides ~1 day of additional lead time for both track and intensity. It’s been an honor for the @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch teams to work alongside NHC forecasters. By combining AI, physics models, satellite data, and the crucial expertise of meteorologists, we're excited to keep pushing the boundaries of forecasting to help protect communities.1h
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    Peter Battaglia@PeterWBattagliaLast week, Hurricane Isaias made landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Our thoughts are with everyone affected and with the recovery efforts still underway. Earlier and more accurate forecasting can help protect communities by giving them more time to prepare, and we are grateful that Google’s WeatherNext model was able to assist the @NWSNHC 's expert forecasters. Based on initial evaluations, here's how our model supported the response to #Isaias: - Tracking the Hurricane’s Path: WeatherNext was the most accurate model on the storm’s track. While traditional physics models predicted landfall closer to New Orleans, WeatherNext correctly predicted a path further east. This allowed NHC forecasters to highlight the potential for wind and storm surge impacts in the Florida Panhandle from their very first forecast. - More Time to Prepare: Up to three days before landfall, our model consistently predicted its eventual location in the Florida Panhandle to within 60 km or less, supporting the NHC as they honed in on a track toward the Florida Panhandle and issued hurricane watches and warnings to give officials in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi more time to prepare. - Early Indications about Intensity: Early on, WeatherNext accurately predicted the intensification to a major hurricane. Alongside the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON, WeatherNext’s intensity forecasts helped NHC forecasters to predict that the Isaias would approach the coast as a category 2 hurricane from the very first advisory. Giving communities more time and more accurate warnings is critical for protecting lives and livelihoods. While model performance varies from storm to storm, Isaias reflects our broader findings. In our recent @Nature paper co-authored with NHC forecasters, evaluating 200+ global tropical cyclones, we found our model provides ~1 day of additional lead time for both track and intensity. It’s been an honor for the @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch teams to work alongside NHC forecasters. By combining AI, physics models, satellite data, and the crucial expertise of meteorologists, we're excited to keep pushing the boundaries of forecasting to help protect communities.1h
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