Morgan Stanley predicts AI will eliminate up to 20% of European banking jobs by 2030, doubling its previous forecast

Morgan Stanley now says European banks could remove up to 20% of jobs as AI takes over repeatable banking work. The bank expects 30% productivity gains, meaning fewer people may be needed for tasks like compliance checks, risk monitoring, KYC reviews, AML screening, reporting, and other back-office work. The forecast has doubled from 10% to 20%, or roughly 200K to 400K possible roles by 2030, because banks are moving from AI pilots to real restructuring plans. Most cuts would likely come through retirements, attrition, and managed exits, because European labour rules make sudden mass layoffs harder than in the US. The workforce will not just shrink, it will change, with fewer traditional processors and more data engineers, AI operators, and model-risk specialists. --- thenextweb. com/news/european-banks-20-percent-jobs-ai-morgan-stanley