Massive output uptick due to agentic AI. Complete flat adoption.
Data shows iOS app releases surged after agentic AI coding tools arrived while consumer usage remained flat
Noah Smith suggests consumer demand for traditional software is saturated
Users criticized the agentic AI app release surge as generating low-quality slop and copycats that deliver no real adoption or usage gains.
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I think the challenge is that everyone can now build apps
But
1) almost nobody has distribution (like an audience), or
2) the money to pay for distribution (ads or UGC), or
3) the creative genius to get distribution for free (classically called guerilla marketing)
Massive output uptick due to agentic AI. Complete flat adoption.
Logically how this ends is you will have 3 groups being successful in startups:
1) VC funded startups with money can still get distribution by ads/UGC and all their money will go there (because building is cheap with AI)
2) influencers will become more important, which is why you see famous people being investors in startups now, they get free equity in startups in return for pushing it to their audience
3) you still get a few creative geniuses who can hack going viral with super original ideas and execution, or ideas that tap really well into the zeitgeist (like that Indo girl with her app she started cause of a TikTok trend), the issue here is everyone thinks they're original and they're not, and also that everyone thinks they understand the zeitgeist and they usually don't, the more you're a normie the less you'll be able to do this, normie is opposite of zeitgeist
I think the challenge is that everyone can now build apps
But
1) almost nobody has distribution (like an audience), or
2) the money to pay for distribution (ads or UGC), or
3) the creative genius to get distribution for free (classically called guerilla marketing)
The good news: agentic is leading to lots of new apps!
The bad news: ain’t nobody adopting them.
Slop FTL [for the loss]
Massive output uptick due to agentic AI. Complete flat adoption.
Code volume does not represent productivity.
Massive output uptick due to agentic AI. Complete flat adoption.

@jenzhuscott It’s the Ikea of personal app era. I assembled my tool

@jenzhuscott @alexolegimas Maybe because people are using ChatGPT for everything.

@jenzhuscott Output was never the bottleneck. I can ship in a weekend now what took years.
The flat part is distribution. Everyone's shipping more, nobody's solved who sees it.

@jenzhuscott Everyone thinking if they only knew how to code they can ship a great app. Now everyone can ship an app, it turns out all the ideas are just shit 😂

@jenzhuscott @calvinfroedge Slop garbage

@BijouConcierge @levelsio Most people think a funnel on 𝕏 is 100 comments a day.

@levelsio It’s always been the same. Building was not that easy but still easy if you had 2000$ for your idea.
It seems easy now because everyone is building their slop apps without finishing them.

@jenzhuscott 1000 apps doing exactly same thing will never achieve even moderate success. The only difference is developers name . Barring extremely good 1 or 2 apps rest all will perish before the next 1000 release

You don’t need to hack going viral with some new format. There are many existing formats that have been consistently going viral for months if not years. Literally copy those.
No ad spend or UGC necessary. In many cases, your face or voice doesn’t even need to be in it.
Go on TikTok, find a format that operates in a problem space you’re passionate about, build the app for that and upload videos with the same viral format.
Attaching my own numbers just to show I’m not speaking out of my ass here - never spent a dollar on ads.

@jenzhuscott "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics" -Robert Solow, 1987

@levelsio The old soft skills: communication, persuasion, relationships are slowly becoming the new hard skills. They’re not “nice to have”, they’re required to harvest attention.

@0x_Kapoor @jenzhuscott Marketing doesn't solve this if people are making apps nobody wants. It might shift the distribution of app usage towards the better marketers, but the total demand/adoption for apps is still finite

@apexlearn_org @kiknaio @jenzhuscott Yes but we can’t ignore the type of task. I’m not buying on chatgpt, I’m doing research. I’m not editing images on chatgpt, I’m maybe removing an item or generating a pretend background. Certain things will change, because there’s a new tool, and before this, everything was web.

@levelsio I found that even if you have the money, creating ads that convert is extremely hard! you really need to understand people, there is no way around it, there's no AI hack yet (although it can help sharpen ideas with gstack office hours 😁)

Most of the ways to hack growth digitally are much harder these days . Airbnb and many others spammed listings, hijacked address books, exploited data breeches, mass address book spamming, phone number lookup on Facebook.
IRL can be effective but largely depends on the product niche and target market. These days you need to work distribution first and work backwards to the product.

@jenzhuscott We’re entering an era where shipping an app is easy and getting 1,000 active users is the hard part.