T3 Stack creator Theo Browne speculates that Dario Amodei is strategically trying to slow frontier AI development

Dario doesn't want the frontier to slow down he actually wants to speed it up

there's nothing he cares more about than having a lead over china

and restrictions for frontier models increases the gap between closed and open models, because china bros can no longer distill

@theo Probably a better conspiracy theory than mine

@theo no reason to think development has slowed.

in fact im already hearing the next gpt is a big step forward

@theo

@max_paperclips im not saying it's the sole reason they improved

but it's one reason and cutting that off will increase the gap

@scaling01 you need to drop the "distillation" thing man, it's fake lmao. a few million Opus tokens isn't why they improved

@theo hacked a bunch of gov stuff with Mythos to spook the spooks

@scaling01 yeah he just wants it to seem like the government is gating his models not him.

@theo Don't give him that much credit.

@theo You might be giving Dario too much credit. If there’s any 5D chess being played here, it’s probably by Fable itself! But AI development won’t slow down. The genie is already out of the bottle.

@scaling01 It's completely irrelevant. Dario is just lying, whip up burger jingoism

@theo idk i don't see how any of this much affects internal dev speeds. maybe a brief blip w the non-citizen employee mythos access stuff but im sure they're already past that

@theo He aint that smart, we all know that lmao

@scaling01 It won't be. Gap is closing, not widening. Qwen are releasing world model after world model, GLM have seen the light and returned to PPO, Deepseek are scaling up etc etc. they're reaching escape velocity

@max_paperclips @scaling01 really? i figured it helps a lot, if you can get a few billion for SFT. not a silver bullet and obviously China is making lots of other independent breakthroughs.

@max_paperclips i mean the gap between the publicly available models might be closing now with the restrictions

but that's not relevant for the future lightcone

US will build AGI first

@theo I think Dario might’ve sacrificed himself in honor tbh

@theo Dario seems like the kinda guy that love competition until he's losing for a single moment.

@theo It’s gain of function research. You make the most dangerous thing possible until the state has no choice but to adopt you as an appendage or fund your research ala manhattan project. The goal isn’t the be the greatest company in the world it’s to become the Department of Energy

@theo @grok draw a meme of Dario playing 5d chess