Christiano reportedly sees 1-in-3 odds of extreme superintelligence within a year, absent a slowdown

Dwarkesh says Paul Christiano assigns a one-in-three chance to extreme superintelligence within a year, absent any slowing down. The November 15 announcement previews a November 16 episode about what labs and governments should do now. The written teaser doesn’t explain the estimate or give labs and governments a to-do list.