AI Futures Project moves its superhuman-researcher forecasts to 2027—with a big evidence caveat

The AI Futures Project has shortened its forecasts for superhuman AI researchers, according to @thlarsen, who identifies as part of the group. All its median estimates now fall between May and November 2027, the poster says. Source

But in the same post, @thlarsen calls public evidence on AI timelines “inadequate” and says most evidence from a recent METR report was redacted. “So we're reading the tea leaves.” Source

Those are forecast medians, not a launch calendar. Source

What counts as a superhuman AI researcher?

An excerpt of the analysis shared by @S_OhEigeartaigh defines a superhuman AI researcher, or SAR, roughly as the point where a company would prefer relying entirely on automated AI researchers to employing a team of the world’s best human researchers working without AI. That is a hypothetical research-capability threshold, not an announced staffing plan. Source

The same excerpt says all the forecasters now expect SAR will “likely arrive at some point in 2027,” provided there is “no substantial deliberate slowdown.”