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    Verifying all of nixpkgs could cost about $400M over five years if AI capability keeps doubling every eight months

    A post sharing the estimate puts the cost of verifying 95% of the code by the end of 2027 at about $134 million, if verification speeds up fourfold.

    JG
    1 Source, 10h ago, first seen 10h ago

    TLDR

    A post sharing a cost estimate says all of nixpkgs could be verified for about $400 million in roughly five years on a $100 million-a-year budget, if AI capability keeps doubling every eight months. It estimates that verifying 95% of the code by the end of 2027 would cost about $134 million if verification speeds up fourfold. The post also puts Linux plus Firecracker at about $1 million and says verifying just 9 MB would cover all dependencies of two-thirds of all code.

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    1 Source, first seen 10h ago

    Combined views

    4K

    1 Source, first seen 10h ago

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    6 comments
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    1 Source

    @diagram_chaserLet's verify all the software -- finally published a botec on how much it might cost. Some headline numbers and estimates: - ≈$400M: all of nixpkgs in ≈5 yr on a $100M/yr budget, if AI capability keeps doubling every 8 months - ≈$134M: 95% of the code by end of 2027, if we speed that up 4× for verification - program size is heavy-tailed, most software is small; the median binary is about 30 KB, and verifying just 9 MB is enough to cover all deps of ⅔ of all code - verification of Linux+Firecracker would cost ≈$1M https://theorem.dev/blog/verified-software-stack/

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    1 Source

    @diagram_chaserLet's verify all the software -- finally published a botec on how much it might cost. Some headline numbers and estimates: - ≈$400M: all of nixpkgs in ≈5 yr on a $100M/yr budget, if AI capability keeps doubling every 8 months - ≈$134M: 95% of the code by end of 2027, if we speed that up 4× for verification - program size is heavy-tailed, most software is small; the median binary is about 30 KB, and verifying just 9 MB is enough to cover all deps of ⅔ of all code - verification of Linux+Firecracker would cost ≈$1M https://theorem.dev/blog/verified-software-stack/
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