My biggest takeaways from ex-OpenAI, Apple, Meta roboticist @kalinowski007:
1. The AI frontier is shifting from digital to physical because labs see the ceiling of keyboard-bound AI. “What you can do behind a keyboard with AI is going to saturate.” Which is why labs, big tech, and startups are increasingly investing in hardware, and why enrollment at universities is rising while CS enrollment is trending down.
2. More change is coming to warfare than to consumer electronics in the next two years. Drones, robotics, and the hardware supply chain all converge on the battlefield, and Caitlin argues we have to be able to control adversarial threats to our hardware layer, not just our chatbots.
3. The hardware industry faces a looming memory crisis that could derail the robotics revolution. Memory prices are spiking—potentially doubling or more—driven by AI data center demand. Companies building consumer robotics can’t compete on price with data centers. Caitlin is advising startups to pre-buy memory and stockpile components if they can afford it, because “we are in trouble as an industry.”
4. VR didn’t become a mainstream product, but it created the tech necessary for robotics (and war). SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping), depth sensors, spatial computing, and understanding how humans perceive visual data in space is now powering robotics, autonomous vehicles, and drones. The technology needed to understand how a robot moves through space is essentially the same technology developed for VR headsets.
5. Humanoid robots are overhyped. While humanoids are interesting for certain long-tail tasks, most manufacturing and real-world applications need dedicated robots designed for specific jobs. A robot screwing keyboards into laptop cases doesn’t need to be humanoid—it needs to be optimized for that exact task. The future will have robots for construction, electrical work, logistics, and low-volume assembly, and most won’t look humanoid.
6. Supply chain independence is a national security imperative. Over the past 25 years, essentially every layer of the hardware supply chain—from raw magnets to actuators to final assembly—has been outsourced to China, Japan, and Korea. The same actuator technology that makes a drone rotor spin also makes a robot arm move. Without an independent supply chain, the U.S. is vulnerable. As Caitlin warns, “We need to re-industrialize this country significantly in order to be safe in a military sense.”
7. The hardest part of building safe robots is the decisions you don’t think about. If a robot arm is heavy and hard, the impact force when it hits you is dangerous. But there’s also the social aspect—robots need to show intent before moving (looking before turning), acknowledge when humans enter a room, and transmit non-threatening body language. As Caitlin learned from researcher Leila Takayama, “If a robot just suddenly turns and does all this stuff, it scares you. But if a robot looks before it turns and then goes, it’s much less alarming.”
8. Software builders don't understand how fundamentally different building hardware is. Software can compile code hourly, but in hardware you may get only a handful of chances to “compile” before mass production, with each major build taking three to five months. Once you ship, you’re done—there are no over-the-air updates for physical components. Software intuition doesn’t transfer to hardware.
9. In hardware, you never have enough time—so do everything you know you need to do right now. Caitlin learned from Apple executives like Shelly Goldberg and Kate Bergeron that you can’t wait around. Even if you technically have more time, use it, because “in two days there’s going to be a surprise coming around the corner that you need that time to fix.” This ruthless efficiency of clearing known tasks immediately creates a buffer for inevitable surprises.
10. AI hasn’t yet transformed hardware engineering. AI can’t do real CAD (computer-aided design) yet, and AI models don’t understand friction, weight, contact pressure, or surface texture. It can do surfaces and point clouds, but not the dense, equation-based solid entities that hardware engineers need. But when it arrives, it will be transformative.
11. CAD files are some of the most valuable IP any company has. Samsung, Apple, and other manufacturers will never give their 3D CAD to AI model makers. This creates a data scarcity problem for training hardware AI. The solution might start with hobbyists who don’t care about IP protection and just want to build things faster, then eventually move to on-premise AI systems that companies can train on their own data without sharing it externally.
12. The best hardware teams combine three types of people. You need generalists who can apply lessons from other fields to new problems. You need some specialists who have built similar things before and others who have scaled products to high volume. And critically, you need 20-year-olds who are truly AI-native—they approach problem-solving completely differently because they use AI from the ground up for everything. As Caitlin notes, “It’s very hard to find someone who’s in their 30s who can be truly fully AI-native.”
