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    Automated forecast puts AI-generated mass catastrophe risk at 0.47% by 2030, a user says

    The system also estimates a 1.1% chance of catastrophe from any cause by 2030, according to the user sharing it.

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    TLDR

    A user shared an automated forecasting system they describe as coming from forecasting experts. According to their account, its models estimate a 0.47% chance of an AI-generated mass catastrophe by 2030, compared with a 1.1% chance of catastrophe from any cause by the same year.

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    3 Sources, first seen 19d ago

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    Combined views

    68.9K

    3 Sources, first seen 19d ago

    416 likes
    19d ago
    first seen 19d ago
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    86 reposts

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    42 comments
    192 saves
    86 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    3 Sources

    @JabaluckWe (credits below) are releasing a dashboard of automated forecasts of catastrophic risk: https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/ Frontier models now forecast as well as good human forecasters, and they will soon be better. We will track what the best models predict over time.
    @emollickHere's a automated forecasting system to estimate catastrophic risk from some major experts on forecasting. The models predicts the chance of an AI-generated mass catastrophe as 0.47% by 2030 (with a 1.1% chance of a catastrophe by 2030 with any cause). https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/
    @timrudnerRT @Jabaluck: We (credits below) are releasing a dashboard of automated forecasts of catastrophic risk: https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/ Frontier m…

    3 Sources

    @JabaluckWe (credits below) are releasing a dashboard of automated forecasts of catastrophic risk: https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/ Frontier models now forecast as well as good human forecasters, and they will soon be better. We will track what the best models predict over time.
    @emollickHere's a automated forecasting system to estimate catastrophic risk from some major experts on forecasting. The models predicts the chance of an AI-generated mass catastrophe as 0.47% by 2030 (with a 1.1% chance of a catastrophe by 2030 with any cause). https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/
    @timrudnerRT @Jabaluck: We (credits below) are releasing a dashboard of automated forecasts of catastrophic risk: https://airo.forecastingresearch.org/ Frontier m…