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    A 70-person AI lab tier poll puts Anthropic and OpenAI at the frontier

    The author says at least 75% placed each in the frontier tier; Google DeepMind and xAI drew consensus one generation behind.

    Danielle Fong 🔆DF
    Chris BarberCB
    2 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    The poll’s author says they asked 70 people at AI labs, AI data companies and other startups to place labs in tiers. At least 75% placed Anthropic and OpenAI at the frontier, Google DeepMind and xAI one generation behind, and Apple and Amazon’s Nova three or more generations behind. The author says they excluded votes for respondents’ own labs and did not vote.

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    2 Sources, first seen 4h ago

    Combined views

    25.2K

    2 Sources, first seen 4h ago

    210 likes
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    4h ago
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    2 Sources

    Chris Barber@chrisbarberI asked people which tier they'd put each lab in: Frontier: - Anthropic: consensus - OpenAI: consensus n-1 (1 generation behind): - Google DeepMind: consensus - xAI: consensus - Meta (Muse Spark): over half say n-1 - Moonshot (Kimi): over half say n-1, some n-2 - Zhipu (GLM): over half say n-1, some n-2 - DeepSeek: over half say n-1, some n-2 - Thinking Machines (Inkling): leans n-1, some put n-2 n-2 (2 generations behind): - Alibaba (Qwen): leans n-2, some put n-1 - ByteDance (Seed): over half say n-2 - Xiaomi (MiMo): leans n-2, some put n-1 - MiniMax: over half say n-2, some n-1 - Tencent (Hy): over half say n-2 - NVIDIA (Nemotron): leans n-2, some put n-3+ n-3+ (3+ generations behind): - Microsoft (MAI): over half say n-3+, some n-2 - Cohere: over half say n-3+, some n-2 - Mistral: over half say n-3+ - Amazon (Nova): consensus - Apple: consensus Consensus = 75%+, over half = 51%-74%, leans = the most common pick but under half, some = 20%+. I asked 70 people. Engineers/researchers/founders at AI data cos, people at labs (I didn't count votes for their own lab), and founders/engineers at other startups. I didn't vote.4h
    Danielle Fong 🔆@DanielleFongRT @chrisbarber: I asked people which tier they'd put each lab in: Frontier: - Anthropic: consensus - OpenAI: consensus n-1 (1 generation…3h
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    2 Sources

    Chris Barber@chrisbarberI asked people which tier they'd put each lab in: Frontier: - Anthropic: consensus - OpenAI: consensus n-1 (1 generation behind): - Google DeepMind: consensus - xAI: consensus - Meta (Muse Spark): over half say n-1 - Moonshot (Kimi): over half say n-1, some n-2 - Zhipu (GLM): over half say n-1, some n-2 - DeepSeek: over half say n-1, some n-2 - Thinking Machines (Inkling): leans n-1, some put n-2 n-2 (2 generations behind): - Alibaba (Qwen): leans n-2, some put n-1 - ByteDance (Seed): over half say n-2 - Xiaomi (MiMo): leans n-2, some put n-1 - MiniMax: over half say n-2, some n-1 - Tencent (Hy): over half say n-2 - NVIDIA (Nemotron): leans n-2, some put n-3+ n-3+ (3+ generations behind): - Microsoft (MAI): over half say n-3+, some n-2 - Cohere: over half say n-3+, some n-2 - Mistral: over half say n-3+ - Amazon (Nova): consensus - Apple: consensus Consensus = 75%+, over half = 51%-74%, leans = the most common pick but under half, some = 20%+. I asked 70 people. Engineers/researchers/founders at AI data cos, people at labs (I didn't count votes for their own lab), and founders/engineers at other startups. I didn't vote.4h
    Danielle Fong 🔆@DanielleFongRT @chrisbarber: I asked people which tier they'd put each lab in: Frontier: - Anthropic: consensus - OpenAI: consensus n-1 (1 generation…3h