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    Keller Jordan Posts Theorem on Computational Singularity Duration

    Keller Jordan posts a theorem bounding the computational singularity at 470 years based on FLOPs growth since 1986.

    KJ
    1 Source, 349d ago, first seen 349d ago

    TLDR

    Keller Jordan, a research engineer, posted on X a theorem stating the maximum possible duration of the computational singularity is 470 years. The post includes a proof comparing the estimated FLOPs capacity of all computers in 1986, at most 4.5e14 according to Hilbert et al. 2011, to at least 1e22 FLOPs today based on public Nvidia revenue and GPU specs. The tweet presents this as a calculation of an upper bound on singularity length.

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    1 Source, first seen 349d ago

    Combined views

    351.7K

    1 Source, first seen 349d ago

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    62 comments
    428 saves
    57 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    1 Source

    @kellerjordan0Theorem: The maximum possible duration of the computational singularity is 470 years. Proof: The FLOPs capacity of all computers which existed in the year 1986 is estimated to be at most 4.5e14 (Hilbert et al. 2011). Based on public Nvidia revenue and GPU specs, this capacity has grown to at least 1e22 FLOPs as of 2025. This difference implies an average growth rate of 55% per year since 1986. Now observe that the physical universe can support at most 10^104 FLOPs (Lloyd 2000). Therefore, even if we allow for the discovery of faster than light travel, the computational singularity — i.e., the historical period of elevated social and technological unpredictability driven by rapid growth in worldwide computational capacity — cannot persist for longer than (2025 -1986) + (104-22)/log_10(1.55) ~= 470 years. References: S. Lloyd, “Ultimate physical limits to computation,” *arXiv preprint quant-ph/9908043*, 1999, doi:10.48550/arXiv.quant-ph/9908043. M. Hilbert and P. López, “The world’s technological capacity to store, communicate, and compute information,” *Science*, vol. 332, no. 6025, pp. 60–65, Apr. 2011, doi:10.1126/science.1200970.

    1 Source

    @kellerjordan0Theorem: The maximum possible duration of the computational singularity is 470 years. Proof: The FLOPs capacity of all computers which existed in the year 1986 is estimated to be at most 4.5e14 (Hilbert et al. 2011). Based on public Nvidia revenue and GPU specs, this capacity has grown to at least 1e22 FLOPs as of 2025. This difference implies an average growth rate of 55% per year since 1986. Now observe that the physical universe can support at most 10^104 FLOPs (Lloyd 2000). Therefore, even if we allow for the discovery of faster than light travel, the computational singularity — i.e., the historical period of elevated social and technological unpredictability driven by rapid growth in worldwide computational capacity — cannot persist for longer than (2025 -1986) + (104-22)/log_10(1.55) ~= 470 years. References: S. Lloyd, “Ultimate physical limits to computation,” *arXiv preprint quant-ph/9908043*, 1999, doi:10.48550/arXiv.quant-ph/9908043. M. Hilbert and P. López, “The world’s technological capacity to store, communicate, and compute information,” *Science*, vol. 332, no. 6025, pp. 60–65, Apr. 2011, doi:10.1126/science.1200970.