Pedro Domingos Describes AI Progress Cycles

Pedro Domingos, Professor Emeritus of Computer Science at the University of Washington and author of The Master Algorithm, posted on X about the typical progression of AI development. He stated that smart but eccentric individuals first predict imminent AGI. They then achieve notable advances and believe success is near. Progress then halts for a period. A new group of researchers later repeats the same sequence. The post frames this as a generational cycle in the field.