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    Can language models achieve AGI and genuine explanatory creativity?

    A post shares an Oxford Physics discussion about artificial general intelligence. A reader proposes a test for confidence in AI: progress across scientific fields beyond current human understanding.

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    TLDR

    A post introduces an Oxford Physics discussion with David Deutsch, Nick Bostrom and others about whether large language models can reach AGI and genuine explanatory creativity.

    A reader’s notes summarize the open questions: Is explanatory creativity qualitatively different from sophisticated search and recombination? Does human understanding have a ceiling? Does the missing capability require a new theory, a modest addition or continued development of current methods?

    The reader argues for focusing less on the AGI label and more on producing new scientific knowledge that benefits humanity. Their strongest evidence would be progress across a breadth of scientific domains beyond current human understanding. They call this a high, fuzzy bar—not a binary definition—and say the test could initially be limited to abstract and algorithmic domains, without experiments.

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    1 Source, first seen 14d ago

    Combined views

    8.3K

    1 Source, first seen 14d ago

    49 likes
    14d ago
    first seen 14d ago
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    @GregKamradtQuite a good read. This is the most tip-of-the-spear conversation to defining AGI I've seen. I hope there is a recording! My notes: * David Deutsch's historical definitions of AGI and how to find it remain consistent, but are increasingly harder to pin down * Top open questions at the end (summarized by OP): * Is explanatory creativity is qualitatively distinct from increasingly sophisticated search and recombination? * Does human understanding have an inherent ceiling? * Does the missing capability require a new theory, a modest addition, or continued development of current methods? My reflection on AGI: Definitions are debated, so let's move past the word AGI and towards what we want AGI to do. We want it to produce net new scientific knowledge that enable and benefit humanity. Encounter novel situations and make progress. What evidence, if observed, would give you maximum confidence that an artificial system could do that? If you'll allow me to state a confidence interval definition (rather than a binary one), then it is this: A system that is able to make progress in a breadth of scientific domains* beyond what humans currently understand. That is a very high fuzzy bar, but that is what would maximally convince me. There is probably a definition with a lower bar, but that is a different exercise to define! *We can keep it to abstract and algorithmic domains for now, no experimentation required.

    1 Source

    @GregKamradtQuite a good read. This is the most tip-of-the-spear conversation to defining AGI I've seen. I hope there is a recording! My notes: * David Deutsch's historical definitions of AGI and how to find it remain consistent, but are increasingly harder to pin down * Top open questions at the end (summarized by OP): * Is explanatory creativity is qualitatively distinct from increasingly sophisticated search and recombination? * Does human understanding have an inherent ceiling? * Does the missing capability require a new theory, a modest addition, or continued development of current methods? My reflection on AGI: Definitions are debated, so let's move past the word AGI and towards what we want AGI to do. We want it to produce net new scientific knowledge that enable and benefit humanity. Encounter novel situations and make progress. What evidence, if observed, would give you maximum confidence that an artificial system could do that? If you'll allow me to state a confidence interval definition (rather than a binary one), then it is this: A system that is able to make progress in a breadth of scientific domains* beyond what humans currently understand. That is a very high fuzzy bar, but that is what would maximally convince me. There is probably a definition with a lower bar, but that is a different exercise to define! *We can keep it to abstract and algorithmic domains for now, no experimentation required.