David Shor Says Extreme AI Forecasters Keep Winning

David Shor, head of data science at Blue Rose Research, replied on X that people should update more from the fact that people with crazy sounding conceptions of the future keep winning forecasting competitions on AI progress while people with more measured intuitions keep undershooting on hard quantitative benchmarks. The post includes an attached screenshot of text on a black background. Shor is described in the packet as known for analyzing polling and forecasting for Democratic campaigns.