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    Would “pacing the frontier” help or hurt open AI models?

    Critics fear safety rules could block enterprise use of fine-tuned open models. Supporters argue shared standards could help adoption. Whether pacing would hurt or help lab profits is disputed, too.

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    50 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    In the September 2026 debate, one critic claimed many enterprises were getting near-frontier performance from reinforcement-learning fine-tuning of open models “20x more cost-effectively,” and alleged closed-model labs wanted to kill that approach with red tape.

    Supporters argued that safety costs would fall hardest on the labs with the most capable models. An open-model advocate also argued that shared safety protocols could help adoption rather than threaten it.

    The economics drew disagreement, too. One commenter predicted that labs choosing to pace would likely spend slightly more on compute for alignment, monitoring and evaluations, at the cost of lower margins. A reply asked whether keeping costly-to-build models in service longer could instead improve per-model margins.

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    Sentiment

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    Summary

    Sentiment

    Positive31%69%Negative

    Many accounts opposed regulating or banning open-source AI models as anti-competitive, dystopian, or impossible to enforce on code, while others backed pacing the frontier or monitoring to protect safety and enable profitability.

    Based on 306 sentiment-bearing replies from 284 accounts across 10 conversations.

    Summary

    Many accounts opposed regulating or banning open-source AI models as anti-competitive, dystopian, or impossible to enforce on code, while others backed pacing the frontier or monitoring to protect safety and enable profitability.

    Based on 306 sentiment-bearing replies from 284 accounts across 10 conversations.

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    50 Sources

    @beffjezosThis is what the frontier labs are afraid of. In our experiments as well, RL fine-tuning of open source models gets near-frontier performance cost-effectively This goes against the business model of the closed labs, so they are trying to kill this approach with red tape.
    @mhdempseyFwiw I think generally a true pause wouldn’t mean same compute build out and thus would not mean more supply for others. People won’t scale compute build out for anyone but a small number of effectively guaranteed buyers and the debt load is already heavy for some such that they won’t scale if frontier labs slow down. More likely you just see infrastructure slow down no?
    @mattparlmerThe objective of the regulatory push that Anthropic has been on for several years and that SpaceX and OpenAI now appear to endorse is to make this sort of deployment functionally illegal through an onerous compliance regime
    @yacineMTBIPO delayed for one year, oss getting too cheap We must stop the AI! gpt 2 is too dangerous to release...!
    @MatthewBermanKeeping open source monitored and behind an API is a power-concentrating outcome and generally bad for the world.
    @_arohan_The cost here is not race towards dangerous capabilities, which is a great thing, particularly given oversight has been very little on agents escaping sandboxes.
    @peteskomorochWhen fine-tuning is easy for the average user and/or automated, combined with autoresearch, weight updates etc everything changes:
    @ayushtweetshereThis is what Dario and Sama fear - - the cost of fine tuned open source models trained on custom data was 95% less than the frontier models - And they performed better than the frontier models - And they could train them in less than 48 hours The big AI labs have no moat.. Even at the enterprise level.. Any sane company would prefer a custom trained open source model instead of paying API pricing to Anthropic and Open AI If open source keeps growing at the pace it is, frontier labs' business collapses.. only way out is oldest trick in manipulation - FUD -> Fear, Uncertainty, Death Step 1 - Seed the psyop - Test a swarm of agents trained to "hack" - The swarm does what its supposed to do - hack - Publish a report - AI is too dangerous Step 2 - weed out the doubters - Get an employee to quit your company - Go viral saying both companies are not doing enough to self regulate AI - AI is dangerous - will kill humanity by the end of the decade Step 3 - Prepare for fruition - write an "essay" to "pace the frontier" - Advocate regulation - Only a few holier than though companies get to build AI - Scare the world into agreeing with AI Doom - Effectively turn your competitors into criminals (genius business strategy) Endgame - - Become a cartel that controls AI (and the world) - Raise prices (coz business is unsustainable... ofc) - IPO (offload liability of said unsustainable business to the public) Laugh all the way to the bank 🤑 Win!
    @willcbas somewhat of a spokesperson for the open model RL industry, i really don’t see the pacing stuff from today as a threat to open source at all i’m reading roon’s claim as “i think that open models will likely cause major security incidents which lead to reactionary bans” and while i disagree, i think that some element of safety standardization which basically only affects the 2-5 big labs today actually makes this much less likely enterprises don’t want misaligned models, and we want to de-risk alignment failures as we scale training compute china also doesn’t want misaligned models, even though alignment is lower on their priority list the open world is playing catch-up, open models aren’t yet that dangerous, and so we don’t spend all that much of our compute on this stuff it makes my job way easier if the labs come together and do the hard research and agree on protocols for what “safe scaling” looks like that everyone else can adopt it also makes it way easier for china to adopt the same protocols voluntarily, which means open models are all more aligned by default this is strictly good for open model adoption imo
    @teortaxesTeximo this is a bad bet as we don't have "frontier open models" today. The frontier is whatever is going through Millennium Prizes. V4.1 or K3 are… not close even to Astra; at best ≤Sol. We'll definitionally have "frontier [among] open models", with an unclear gap to frontier.

    50 Sources

    @beffjezosThis is what the frontier labs are afraid of. In our experiments as well, RL fine-tuning of open source models gets near-frontier performance cost-effectively This goes against the business model of the closed labs, so they are trying to kill this approach with red tape.
    @mhdempseyFwiw I think generally a true pause wouldn’t mean same compute build out and thus would not mean more supply for others. People won’t scale compute build out for anyone but a small number of effectively guaranteed buyers and the debt load is already heavy for some such that they won’t scale if frontier labs slow down. More likely you just see infrastructure slow down no?
    @mattparlmerThe objective of the regulatory push that Anthropic has been on for several years and that SpaceX and OpenAI now appear to endorse is to make this sort of deployment functionally illegal through an onerous compliance regime
    @yacineMTBIPO delayed for one year, oss getting too cheap We must stop the AI! gpt 2 is too dangerous to release...!
    @MatthewBermanKeeping open source monitored and behind an API is a power-concentrating outcome and generally bad for the world.
    @_arohan_The cost here is not race towards dangerous capabilities, which is a great thing, particularly given oversight has been very little on agents escaping sandboxes.
    @peteskomorochWhen fine-tuning is easy for the average user and/or automated, combined with autoresearch, weight updates etc everything changes:
    @ayushtweetshereThis is what Dario and Sama fear - - the cost of fine tuned open source models trained on custom data was 95% less than the frontier models - And they performed better than the frontier models - And they could train them in less than 48 hours The big AI labs have no moat.. Even at the enterprise level.. Any sane company would prefer a custom trained open source model instead of paying API pricing to Anthropic and Open AI If open source keeps growing at the pace it is, frontier labs' business collapses.. only way out is oldest trick in manipulation - FUD -> Fear, Uncertainty, Death Step 1 - Seed the psyop - Test a swarm of agents trained to "hack" - The swarm does what its supposed to do - hack - Publish a report - AI is too dangerous Step 2 - weed out the doubters - Get an employee to quit your company - Go viral saying both companies are not doing enough to self regulate AI - AI is dangerous - will kill humanity by the end of the decade Step 3 - Prepare for fruition - write an "essay" to "pace the frontier" - Advocate regulation - Only a few holier than though companies get to build AI - Scare the world into agreeing with AI Doom - Effectively turn your competitors into criminals (genius business strategy) Endgame - - Become a cartel that controls AI (and the world) - Raise prices (coz business is unsustainable... ofc) - IPO (offload liability of said unsustainable business to the public) Laugh all the way to the bank 🤑 Win!
    @willcbas somewhat of a spokesperson for the open model RL industry, i really don’t see the pacing stuff from today as a threat to open source at all i’m reading roon’s claim as “i think that open models will likely cause major security incidents which lead to reactionary bans” and while i disagree, i think that some element of safety standardization which basically only affects the 2-5 big labs today actually makes this much less likely enterprises don’t want misaligned models, and we want to de-risk alignment failures as we scale training compute china also doesn’t want misaligned models, even though alignment is lower on their priority list the open world is playing catch-up, open models aren’t yet that dangerous, and so we don’t spend all that much of our compute on this stuff it makes my job way easier if the labs come together and do the hard research and agree on protocols for what “safe scaling” looks like that everyone else can adopt it also makes it way easier for china to adopt the same protocols voluntarily, which means open models are all more aligned by default this is strictly good for open model adoption imo
    @teortaxesTeximo this is a bad bet as we don't have "frontier open models" today. The frontier is whatever is going through Millennium Prizes. V4.1 or K3 are… not close even to Astra; at best ≤Sol. We'll definitionally have "frontier [among] open models", with an unclear gap to frontier.