Teortaxes argues the bubble could buffer bad domestic policy decisions.
Séb Krier#505
I really appreciate the idealism of everyone who is so good at spotting stock market bubbles and uses that skill to do political punditry rather than getting rich as an investor.
I'm a moron who buys and holds because I think errors are equally probably in either direction.
Positive users agree with Yglesias that AI stocks remain undervalued and not yet a bubble given persistent fear, while negative users attack him for seeking input without admitting prior errors.
People are going insane. there's so much demand for a bubble the wildest thing is that these are Americans, they actually should cheer for the AI "bubble", it'll bail them out of the consequences of their dumbass actions and mediocrity of their leaders. Then again…
I really appreciate the idealism of everyone who is so good at spotting stock market bubbles and uses that skill to do political punditry rather than getting rich as an investor.
I'm a moron who buys and holds because I think errors are equally probably in either direction.
@mattyglesias You are aware that writing about there being a market bubble and shorting stocks aren’t mutually exclusive activities, correct?
I do both, and I’m good at both!
@mattyglesias Knowing there's a bubble is quite different than being able to make money from it. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Michael Burry almost lost everything even though he bet the right way.
@mattyglesias He wasn’t writing a piece two weeks ago about why he was wrong about everything, and he won’t write a mea culpa in two weeks time when stocks are back to their pre-great crash of June 2026 levels.
@benjamin_horne @mattyglesias Somehow the people that reliably make money trading in public markets (Jane Street, Renaissance, etc) do not actually post about it very much
@mattyglesias All the dummies come out when stocks go down; which I use as a reminder that there are plenty of other dummies around when stocks go up. Over the long term, things sort themselves out.
@beamdriver @mattyglesias I appreciate the wisdom in that, but doesn’t it seem like a cop out? Predictions with no time frame are meaningless- why even make it? Why credit someone for a prediction when they didn’t understand why the event happened- if they did they would have known when it would happen.
@SterlingRettke @mattyglesias I have not shorted a single stock in past three years, on God.
I did however just short CoreWeave last week.
Rough times ahead, bookmark this if you must.
(I am gay for Maye btw, go Pats)
@coreilly @mattyglesias The AI bubble looks like any number new technology, hype driven, stock market bubbles going back to the airline stock bubble in the late 1920's.
There are always people saying, "This time is different" but I don't think they've ever been right.
@benjamin_horne @mattyglesias I'm aware, I'm saying that if you have credible alpha in the markets, you will actually make money from it, not try to make money by convincing people to pay for your newsletter.
@benjamin_horne @mattyglesias 🤝 Maye!
Don't disagree about Coreweave thesis individually. Think they have some issues but idk about the market writ large. It's really a question about if think AI capex works or doesn't; and if not how much of a haircut does the general market take from the insane spending
@benjamin_horne @mattyglesias Show your history shorting stocks over the past 3 years but subtract April 2025 where everyone with an IQ over 80 could pull a lever during a trading day and either make money or lose it lol
@F_Vaggi @mattyglesias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-disclosure_agreement
@benjamin_horne @SterlingRettke @mattyglesias True, you’re a liar is the larger point.
@mattyglesias Progressives think the economy is a bunch of made up numbers so listenning to what they have to say about money/business is kinda like taking medical advice from RFK Jr.
@mattyglesias - A.I. bears: I daresay this will lose money. - A.I. bulls:
@beamdriver @mattyglesias So AI will be just like airlines? I’m not saying there haven’t been ups and downs ( :-) ) or even that Airlines have historically been a great investment but … I mean they still exist. They provide a service that we all ( or mostly all ) appreciate.
@benjamin_horne @SterlingRettke @mattyglesias If you haven’t shorted a stock in 3 years, then you are not good at shorting stocks.
@ls_fin @SterlingRettke @mattyglesias Think you’re missing the larger point by focusing on a very specific/arbitrary detail there, bud.
@beamdriver @coreilly @mattyglesias Railroad bubble of 1829
Teortaxes argues the bubble could buffer bad domestic policy decisions.
Séb Krier#505I really appreciate the idealism of everyone who is so good at spotting stock market bubbles and uses that skill to do political punditry rather than getting rich as an investor.
I'm a moron who buys and holds because I think errors are equally probably in either direction.