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    A future without human labor: One user's hopes and fears for AI in 2050

    Imagining superintelligence and a billion humanoid robots in 2050, a user asks whether humans would still have value—and whether we could control that much power.

    WB
    1 Source, ,

    TLDR

    A user explores whether a future that no longer needs human labor would be desirable, describing feelings ranging from excitement to fear and meaninglessness. Their hypothetical 2050 assumes AI far smarter than all humanity combined, a billion humanoid robots, and the ability to build essentially anything with sufficient computing power and energy. In the version they describe as “done poorly,” power could concentrate in roughly 10 tech firms, authoritarian governments could control digital information, and engineered viruses, nuclear war or self-replicating AI could threaten humanity.

    Combined views

    6K

    1 Source, first seen 23d ago

    Combined views

    6K

    1 Source, first seen 23d ago

    74 likes
    23d ago
    first seen 23d ago
    74 likes
    9 comments
    23 saves
    1 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

    9 comments
    23 saves
    1 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    1 Source

    @WilliamBrykThis is the first labor day where you can sense a future where human labor isn't necessary. But do we even want this future? I spent much of this weekend thinking about this question. I went through the full cycle of excitement, fear, meaninglessness, back to excitement. The world could be so amazing? Could we ever control this level of power? But will humans have any value?What do we get if we make it through to the other side? Things became clearer when I made a pros/cons list. So here's a pros/cons list for the year 2050 where superintelligence occurs. I assume in 2050 we'll have superintelligence far smarter than all humanity combined. I assume a billion humanoid robots. I assume essentially anything can be built given sufficient compute + energy. A 2050 future done poorly: - extreme power concentration in 10 or so tech firms who control compute. Most humans feel powerless, and the same with governments - Authoritarian government gets AI first, overwrites all digital information, no one knows what's true. This government ensures hegemony for centuries - major virus with Ebola death rate + as contagious as Covid wipes out much of mankind. Launched by a suicidal terrorist group, it's designed to not be detectable until a year in - Nuclear war over fear of US establishing permanent superintelligence supremacy. No humans left. Just robots roaming a wasteland earth - Misaligned, self-replicating AI swarm spreads throughout the universe turning all life into datacenters, in order to answer some impossible question on an eval - all the dangers we can't imagine: severe digital addiction, dystopian government structures, etc. A 2050 future done well: - Pristine health: the cure to all major diseases once and for all. No cancer, Alzheimers, heart disease, etc. Easy to write this, but imagine it actually happening. We've done it before, we can do it for everything. - Aesthetics: Aging slowed down or reversed. No more acne, hair loss, wrinkles, muscle loss - Beautiful earth: climate change a thing of the past. Solar + wind + fission + fusion. Super clean air everywhere. Robot ships fully clean the oceans. Forest restoration. All life flourishes. - Beautiful cities: robots ensure clean streets, very little crime, stunning buildings built in a couple years, way larger houses, super beautiful walking around - Magical transportation: Jetpacks from house in the woods to the city, hyperloop from nyc to paris in an hour, 5min to anywhere in SF - Space exploration: space elevators for quick trips to moon, fusion rockets and cryosleep for first trips to Alpha Centauri - Discovery: Math and physics discovery accelerates exponentially, dark matter turns out to have wild explanation, aliens detected in patterns of galaxies, consciousness finally understood. - Mental state: drugs without negative side effects help transform the brain into whatever state we want, whether smarter or happier, without any lows or de-motivation. Nothing in physics prevents this. - ^All these good things but for everyone. In an age of abundance, there's no reason anyone to be left behind. AI helps us figure out government and economic structures that are stable for centuries while enabling individual freedom. New information tools keep society fully informed so we can finally run politics as adults. - all the good things we can't imagine: communication with animals, new senses, mind uploading into spacecraft, etc. Don't believe things could get that good? Try explaining our world to a hunter-gatherer from 50,000 BC. Don't believe things could get that bad? Try watching a documentary about 1940 europe. In my current opinion, the pros of superintelligence outweigh the cons, but only if we tread extremely carefully. Whether you agree or not, this transition does seem like it's happening. You may choose to slow it down, prevent it, or accelerate it, but we are all now participants in it. And that brings us back to Labor Day. This transition is going to require an immense amount of human work to go well. AI labs are providing the initial sparks of the transition, but we need all humans to provide the rest of the infrastructure. From AI tooling to thoughtful policy decisions to manufacturing to media to education. Work's going to change for everyone, but there's never before been more work to do for everyone. And looking forward decades, no matter how autonomous AI gets, if we have the right societal structures, then we'll still need many humans to steer that future. Imagine, for ex, in 15 years we want NYC to have underground hyperloop transportation. Sure superintelligence can coordinate it and robots can do the actual building, but humans will be needed to handle all the policy decisions and debates over which loops go where, who controls them, who maintains them. Now multiply that by all the projects we'll want to pursue in parallel across the planet, with limited compute/energy/material resources. There's plenty to be excited about. There's plenty to fear about. But on this labor day, there's no need to feel meaningless. There is and always will be many days of labor ahead of us.

    1 Source

    @WilliamBrykThis is the first labor day where you can sense a future where human labor isn't necessary. But do we even want this future? I spent much of this weekend thinking about this question. I went through the full cycle of excitement, fear, meaninglessness, back to excitement. The world could be so amazing? Could we ever control this level of power? But will humans have any value?What do we get if we make it through to the other side? Things became clearer when I made a pros/cons list. So here's a pros/cons list for the year 2050 where superintelligence occurs. I assume in 2050 we'll have superintelligence far smarter than all humanity combined. I assume a billion humanoid robots. I assume essentially anything can be built given sufficient compute + energy. A 2050 future done poorly: - extreme power concentration in 10 or so tech firms who control compute. Most humans feel powerless, and the same with governments - Authoritarian government gets AI first, overwrites all digital information, no one knows what's true. This government ensures hegemony for centuries - major virus with Ebola death rate + as contagious as Covid wipes out much of mankind. Launched by a suicidal terrorist group, it's designed to not be detectable until a year in - Nuclear war over fear of US establishing permanent superintelligence supremacy. No humans left. Just robots roaming a wasteland earth - Misaligned, self-replicating AI swarm spreads throughout the universe turning all life into datacenters, in order to answer some impossible question on an eval - all the dangers we can't imagine: severe digital addiction, dystopian government structures, etc. A 2050 future done well: - Pristine health: the cure to all major diseases once and for all. No cancer, Alzheimers, heart disease, etc. Easy to write this, but imagine it actually happening. We've done it before, we can do it for everything. - Aesthetics: Aging slowed down or reversed. No more acne, hair loss, wrinkles, muscle loss - Beautiful earth: climate change a thing of the past. Solar + wind + fission + fusion. Super clean air everywhere. Robot ships fully clean the oceans. Forest restoration. All life flourishes. - Beautiful cities: robots ensure clean streets, very little crime, stunning buildings built in a couple years, way larger houses, super beautiful walking around - Magical transportation: Jetpacks from house in the woods to the city, hyperloop from nyc to paris in an hour, 5min to anywhere in SF - Space exploration: space elevators for quick trips to moon, fusion rockets and cryosleep for first trips to Alpha Centauri - Discovery: Math and physics discovery accelerates exponentially, dark matter turns out to have wild explanation, aliens detected in patterns of galaxies, consciousness finally understood. - Mental state: drugs without negative side effects help transform the brain into whatever state we want, whether smarter or happier, without any lows or de-motivation. Nothing in physics prevents this. - ^All these good things but for everyone. In an age of abundance, there's no reason anyone to be left behind. AI helps us figure out government and economic structures that are stable for centuries while enabling individual freedom. New information tools keep society fully informed so we can finally run politics as adults. - all the good things we can't imagine: communication with animals, new senses, mind uploading into spacecraft, etc. Don't believe things could get that good? Try explaining our world to a hunter-gatherer from 50,000 BC. Don't believe things could get that bad? Try watching a documentary about 1940 europe. In my current opinion, the pros of superintelligence outweigh the cons, but only if we tread extremely carefully. Whether you agree or not, this transition does seem like it's happening. You may choose to slow it down, prevent it, or accelerate it, but we are all now participants in it. And that brings us back to Labor Day. This transition is going to require an immense amount of human work to go well. AI labs are providing the initial sparks of the transition, but we need all humans to provide the rest of the infrastructure. From AI tooling to thoughtful policy decisions to manufacturing to media to education. Work's going to change for everyone, but there's never before been more work to do for everyone. And looking forward decades, no matter how autonomous AI gets, if we have the right societal structures, then we'll still need many humans to steer that future. Imagine, for ex, in 15 years we want NYC to have underground hyperloop transportation. Sure superintelligence can coordinate it and robots can do the actual building, but humans will be needed to handle all the policy decisions and debates over which loops go where, who controls them, who maintains them. Now multiply that by all the projects we'll want to pursue in parallel across the planet, with limited compute/energy/material resources. There's plenty to be excited about. There's plenty to fear about. But on this labor day, there's no need to feel meaningless. There is and always will be many days of labor ahead of us.