SemiAnalysis finds consumer AI subscriptions subsidize heavy users with up to 70x more token value than standard APIs
OpenAI's $20 subscription delivers $700 in monthly API value.
OpenAI's $20 subscription delivers $700 in monthly API value.
OpenAI's $20 subscription delivers $700 in monthly API value.
OpenAI's $20 subscription delivers $700 in monthly API value.

@SemiAnalysis_ Awesome thread! Updated our article with your datapoints, thank you! https://x.com/reefy_ai/status/2060003742800359628

@SemiAnalysis_ You guys really out here ruining it for the average person

@scaling01 You’re retarded
Read these two facts together. Because there's something important to learn from it. Anthropic just told investors it's on track for its first profitable quarter, with revenue more than doubling to ~$10.9B. OpenAI is projected to burn well into the double-digit billions this year (2026) and, per the WSJ, is now weighing further price cuts to keep enterprises from defecting to Claude. The lab bleeding the most cash is the one under pressure to get cheaper, because the profitable one is what enterprises increasingly want. SemiAnalysis ran the tokenomics. A $200 ChatGPT plan can soak up to ~$14,000 in API-equivalent tokens a month. The same $200 Claude Max tier caps near $8,000. OpenAI already eats the bigger subsidy by a wide margin, and the WSJ reports it's considering cutting token prices further to win users from Anthropic. So the company losing the most money is the one being pushed to go cheaper, while the one approaching profitability sets the terms. This is competition 101, heated competition in a nutshell.
API is overpriced vs subscriptions by 40-70x Do you know what this means? They have DeepSeek-level compute efficiency if not better. Which makes perfect sense (tbh still too good for DS), given frontier budgets for overtraining, autoresearch, larger and older staff etc. https://twitter.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2064815044085318040
obviously, maximally utilized subscriptions are negative. but I think the negative margin isn't that dramatic anymore (because it's too easy to max out with agents now). I'd say current subscriptions must be profitable up to ≈35% utilization. https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2064815045767213400?s=20
Subscription plans are massively subsidized. And by massively, I mean absurdly: Claude Max 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $8,000 ChatGPT Pro 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $14,000
Tokens will be 2-10x cheaper every year As such, it’s perfectly logical to get folks addicted to your product now and raise prices later — or simply let Moore's law do its thing https://twitter.com/dee_bosa/status/2065209908543590875
at current pricing a max20x is subsidizing a whole employee worth of spend ime https://twitter.com/semianalysis_/status/2064815044085318040
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