Teortaxes points out that U.S. export controls have flipped the script on Chinese memory makers, curbing their ability to ramp DRAM output even as demand stays robust and global leaders chase HBM instead, leaving a widening supply hole that domestic players cannot yet fill.
FOR ONCE people are begging to have some Chinese Overcapacity, and they can't deliver. Shameful display… (if they weren't on the receiving side of the export controls, though, it'd be a more interesting story)
@paurooteri Not even close. The gap between where CXMT is and where the market needs them to be is wider than most people think.
Chinese fabs now compete fiercely for limited DUV immersion lithography plus etch and deposition gear, with restrictions blocking easy access and forcing stockpiling or slower domestic substitutes where they exist.
Plants run at full tilt yet capacity projections top out around 350 kwspm by year-end, well short of local needs, with new lines not slated for production until 2027 at the earliest.
Users express optimism that chipmakers' order books will keep growing at an insane rate amid competition for scarce DUVi etch and deposition tools.
No Digg Deeper questions have been answered for this story yet.
Everyone is fighting for the same DUVi, etch/deposition tools
WFE sub systems are going to rip hard in the next 2 years
FOR ONCE people are begging to have some Chinese Overcapacity, and they can't deliver. Shameful display… (if they weren't on the receiving side of the export controls, though, it'd be a more interesting story)
@Blinklebloop Yes, but their order book will continue to grow at an insane rate
@zephyr_z9 I mean they’ve already ripped pretty hard
@teortaxesTex Air conditioners?
@zephyr_z9 You got a top pick?
@teortaxesTex CXMT: “Give me the EUVs! Unleash me!”
@Bluebearmonkey right, that too …actually people demand Overcapacity surprisingly often…
@zephyr_z9 Any you like here other than mksi?
@zephyr_z9 You reckon they might exercise some pricing power?
@zephyr_z9 Thoughts on Frencken? http://E28.SI
@zephyr_z9 Did u know there is a swedish subsupplier for the vaccum systems to ASML?
@teortaxesTex 这产能要是能溢出咱们早起飞了
@teortaxesTex the only sector that is not overcapacitated, maybe will in 2035?
@zephyr_z9 the bottleneck on duv etch and deposition tools is real
that pressure ripples through the whole supply chain in the next cycle