once public, anthropic & openai will have to take far more calculated risks in both models & products. & everything will take a lot longer to do.
talent shifts too. pre ipo you’re selling optionality on a moonshot but post ipo you’re selling liquid rsus with a perhaps capped multiple. that filters out the risk seeking slice, even if the median a player still shows up.
ai labs launches & esp launches from any publicly traded companies no longer feel that threatening tbh.
this is great news for startups cuz the labs are about to be public & you can feel the big co type misalignment happening amongst the various divisions kinda like google shipping the org chart, etc.
“what if openai does this?” has less signal in than ever before cuz at some point that was the most legit question.
no knock on any of these places, this is just what happens when you’re uber successful. employees are wiping off the pain with crisp $100 bills.