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    Posts dispute Musk’s “decel” label and Yudkowsky’s forecasting record

    A quote-post criticizes Eliezer Yudkowsky over what it describes as missed prediction deadlines and shifting goalposts, and questions MIRI’s contribution to AI safety.

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    TLDR

    One post rejects calling Elon Musk a “decel,” arguing that the label puts his critics at odds with people the author considers repeatedly right about technology. A post quoting it turns to Eliezer Yudkowsky’s forecasting record, alleging that his concrete predictions with timelines were wrong and that he keeps moving the goalposts. It also argues that MIRI has contributed little to making AI safer.

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    1 Source, first seen 16d ago

    Combined views

    17.3K

    1 Source, first seen 16d ago

    118 likes
    16d ago
    first seen 16d ago
    118 likes
    16 comments
    32 saves
    3 reposts

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    16 comments
    32 saves
    3 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    1 Source

    @scaling01i find this conversation so weird. "who got the doom right?" there are the doomers like yud who have been screaming for 30 years that the world is going to end in 1996, he made the prediction that the singularity would arrive by 2025, or by 2005 given sufficient funding. later, he claimed seedai by 2010. then nanotech in the 2010s and the singularity around 2020. after that, in 2000, he said, "regardless of whether neural networks are necessary, they are certainly not sufficient" if you look at it, literally all of his concrete predictions with timelines were wrong, and he just keeps moving the goalposts the only "correct" predictions are a hedge that says either it happens or it doesn't, and that there was a >16% chance that AI gets IMO gold by 2025 he has the most abysmal track record he's the second burry, trying to predict the next big crash every year of course, it's coming eventually. every 14-year-old armchair philosopher can understand why. but that just makes him a broken, incredibly miscalibrated clock, not a prophet yud is a science fiction writer who has popularized the topic and is making his money off fanfiction doom books, but besides that, he and the companies he has co-founded have done nothing worthwhile in those 30 years to actually make AI more aligned or generally safer i certainly don't see anyone using "logical induction" or "functional decision theory" in fact MIRI added so little of value that they had to pivot

    1 Source

    @scaling01i find this conversation so weird. "who got the doom right?" there are the doomers like yud who have been screaming for 30 years that the world is going to end in 1996, he made the prediction that the singularity would arrive by 2025, or by 2005 given sufficient funding. later, he claimed seedai by 2010. then nanotech in the 2010s and the singularity around 2020. after that, in 2000, he said, "regardless of whether neural networks are necessary, they are certainly not sufficient" if you look at it, literally all of his concrete predictions with timelines were wrong, and he just keeps moving the goalposts the only "correct" predictions are a hedge that says either it happens or it doesn't, and that there was a >16% chance that AI gets IMO gold by 2025 he has the most abysmal track record he's the second burry, trying to predict the next big crash every year of course, it's coming eventually. every 14-year-old armchair philosopher can understand why. but that just makes him a broken, incredibly miscalibrated clock, not a prophet yud is a science fiction writer who has popularized the topic and is making his money off fanfiction doom books, but besides that, he and the companies he has co-founded have done nothing worthwhile in those 30 years to actually make AI more aligned or generally safer i certainly don't see anyone using "logical induction" or "functional decision theory" in fact MIRI added so little of value that they had to pivot