A 20-fold compute advantage may buy only about six months of lead in AI model capabilities

A user suggests that 20 times more compute may buy roughly six months of lead in model capabilities, pointing to rapid gains in efficiency. They speculate that anti-distillation measures might stretch that to 12 months. In a follow-up, they ask how much extra compute would help deploy agents at scale, suggesting it might help more in cybersecurity than in biology.