There will be humans with jobs for a long, long time. What percentage of humanity that will be is an open question. The people who claim the number will be high are overconfident, as are the people who claim the number will be zero. It does seem hard to imagine how humans will contribute on the margin to the knowledge part of knowledge work for much longer. Demand for some things, like doctors, might go down a lot if we have superhuman AI doctors for $20/month + a la carte testing + significantly improved health via better medical technology. However because we cartelize doctors now, we might keep doing it and being a doctor will remain a great profession. Demand for entertainment will probably increase, but the cost of production will go down and the technical need for humans in entertainment has already decreased significantly. However we care a lot about other humans, so maybe we’ll keep caring about them and being an actor will become more lucrative. One way to think about how this might shape up is how many intermediate layers there are in the supply chain between a worker of today and the consumer. For a TikTok influencer there are zero layers. For a doctor, there are zero. For a factory worker there are many. The extent to which a job (a) can be disintermediated, or (b) can be outcompeted or (c) is fungible will probably determine a lot of their outcome. This analysis is quite subtle and this paragraph is not going to do it justice, but the last thing to mention is that this assumes we don’t have precipitous demand side collapse, which could happen if too many people don't work and productivity/government efficiency isn't good enough for UBI/UHI.