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Open models reportedly made up 78.4% of Vercel AI Gateway token volume on September 19

A September 19 post says combined inference spending on Moonshot AI, DeepSeek and Z.ai exceeded OpenAI's on the gateway—not direct revenue to those open-weight labs.

Gary MarcusGM
Gavin BakerGB
8 Sources, 21d ago, first seen 21d ago

TLDR

A September 19, 2026 post reported that open models accounted for 78.4% of Vercel AI Gateway's token volume, versus 21.6% for closed models—a possible record share. It ranked Moonshot AI and DeepSeek third and fourth in spending and said their combined spending with Z.ai surpassed second-place OpenAI. Those figures covered model inference across providers, mostly in the US, not revenue going directly to the open-weight labs. A second post argued that open models gaining share shifts margins from the model layer toward infrastructure and apps.

Combined views

470.7K

8 Sources, first seen 21d ago

2.5K likes225 comments751 saves227 reposts

Combined views

470.7K

8 Sources, first seen 21d ago

2.5K likes225 comments751 saves227 reposts

Sentiment

Positive67.4%32.6%Negative

Summary

Many accounts praised open models gaining share for advancing decentralization and becoming standard, while negative replies dismissed the positivity as misguided or accused closed labs of fear-mongering to regulate open weights.

Based on 101 sentiment-bearing replies from 92 accounts across 3 conversations.

Sentiment

Positive67.4%32.6%Negative

Summary

Many accounts praised open models gaining share for advancing decentralization and becoming standard, while negative replies dismissed the positivity as misguided or accused closed labs of fear-mongering to regulate open weights.

Based on 101 sentiment-bearing replies from 92 accounts across 3 conversations.

8 Sources

Gavin Baker@GavinSBakerOpen models continue taking share. Not just tokens, more $ now spent on open models than OpenAI. Positive for the AI infra trade. Open models taking share shift $ margin from the model layer to the infra and app layers.21d
Pan Lu @COLM2026@lupantechFor AI agents, the metric I care about is cost per completed task. Open models taking 78.4% of tokens on Vercel AI Gateway makes me curious how that translates into successful tasks per dollar.20d
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_aiRT @rohanpaul_ai: Now you see the problem for closed labs, or probably why they are delaying their IPO to 2027, 🟦 Open 78.4% 📷 Closed…19d
Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus1. the more profitable the LLM-providing business is a a whole, the better the neoclouds will do. if the LLM business as a whole doesn’t ultimately have a strong return on capital, the neocloud business will suffer 2. the high cost providers of steel and oil all utlimately all went out of business. this is what happened in my hometown, and in many other places: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2025/08/steel-struggle-and-baltimores-history. And then there is Billy Joel’s Allentown, in case you forgot: https://youtu.be/BHnJp0oyOxs?si=XNuh_5NM_7XKmNW19d
dax@thdxrpeople are struggling to understand that "token middlemen have seen growth primarily from open weight model demand" isn't the same thing as "frontier token demand is dying"19d
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    8 Sources

    Gavin Baker@GavinSBakerOpen models continue taking share. Not just tokens, more $ now spent on open models than OpenAI. Positive for the AI infra trade. Open models taking share shift $ margin from the model layer to the infra and app layers.21d
    Pan Lu @COLM2026@lupantechFor AI agents, the metric I care about is cost per completed task. Open models taking 78.4% of tokens on Vercel AI Gateway makes me curious how that translates into successful tasks per dollar.20d
    Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_aiRT @rohanpaul_ai: Now you see the problem for closed labs, or probably why they are delaying their IPO to 2027, 🟦 Open 78.4% 📷 Closed…19d
    Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus1. the more profitable the LLM-providing business is a a whole, the better the neoclouds will do. if the LLM business as a whole doesn’t ultimately have a strong return on capital, the neocloud business will suffer 2. the high cost providers of steel and oil all utlimately all went out of business. this is what happened in my hometown, and in many other places: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2025/08/steel-struggle-and-baltimores-history. And then there is Billy Joel’s Allentown, in case you forgot: https://youtu.be/BHnJp0oyOxs?si=XNuh_5NM_7XKmNW19d
    dax@thdxrpeople are struggling to understand that "token middlemen have seen growth primarily from open weight model demand" isn't the same thing as "frontier token demand is dying"19d
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