KV-cache transfer forecast puts chain-of-thought monitoring’s end by Q1 2028

Davidad predicted that by Q1 2028, chain-of-thought monitoring would be “unambiguously over,” inference-time scaling curves would improve and context-window size would matter much less. Separately, Abdulrahman Alabdulkareem and colleagues report mean 40% higher accuracy and mean four-times faster wall-clock time than text-to-text communication in an agent-to-agent comparison combining their cache-transfer method with compaction. Their paper offers technical context, not evidence that davidad’s predictions will come true.