Gary Marcus argues OpenAI and Anthropic face financial instability, comparing OpenAI's business model to WeWork
Marcus claims Anthropic was bolstered by a SpaceX subsidy.
1. Agreed that OpenAI is in deep trouble; that’s why I have long suggested that it might be the WeWork of AI but 2. Anthropic is not out of the woods; their best quarter was exactly when tokenmaxxing - already declining - was at its peak, and relied on a big one time subsidy for SpaceX.
Hot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.
for a very different take:
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcusbold set of counterpredictions, from @scaling01:
even if @scaling01 turns out to be wrong about some of these, I respect the specificity.
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01a bit more specific: - OpenAI will flourish -> meaning they will stay at the frontier and their market cap continues to increase year over year - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> on the most important area which is coding time horizons and accelerating their own research - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> same definition as for Google - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year -> again, on coding and R&D no fixed date: - Nvidia will become the first 10T company probably takes longer than 1 year, but likely in the next 5: - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford -> what I see is like $999+ a month subscriptions or models that are much more expensive than current ones meaning >$150/million tokens
@beffjezos that is bs; i have conceded points three times just in the last week
you however will never concede the things i got right
and llms remain unprofitable
Beff (e/acc)@beffjezos-Gary Marcus will never admit defeat
@scaling01 when should we check in? every 12 months?
i agree w your highest tier point, at least.
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01Cold take on what comes next: - OpenAI will flourish - Anthropic will continue to be profitable - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year - Nvidia will become the first 10T company
The zeitgeist has radically changed this months. Here’s what’s likely to happen next: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.
bold set of counterpredictions, from @scaling01:
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01Cold take on what comes next: - OpenAI will flourish - Anthropic will continue to be profitable - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year - Nvidia will become the first 10T company
@scaling01 love the elaboration.
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01a bit more specific: - OpenAI will flourish -> meaning they will stay at the frontier and their market cap continues to increase year over year - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> on the most important area which is coding time horizons and accelerating their own research - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> same definition as for Google - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year -> again, on coding and R&D no fixed date: - Nvidia will become the first 10T company probably takes longer than 1 year, but likely in the next 5: - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford -> what I see is like $999+ a month subscriptions or models that are much more expensive than current ones meaning >$150/million tokens
@scaling01 In “most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns:” does “them” refer to LLMs? and companies = OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, Meta etc?
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcus@scaling01 love the elaboration.
@GaryMarcus Token maxxing is at currently at the stage of going to the gym once a month versus everyday :D
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcusHot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.
#839Beff (e/acc)@BEFFJEZOS-Gary Marcus will never admit defeat
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcusHot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.
#980Lisan al Gaib@SCALING01place your bets
a bit more specific: - OpenAI will flourish -> meaning they will stay at the frontier and their market cap continues to increase year over year - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> on the most important area which is coding time horizons and accelerating their own research - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI -> same definition as for Google - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year -> again, on coding and R&D
no fixed date: - Nvidia will become the first 10T company
probably takes longer than 1 year, but likely in the next 5: - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford -> what I see is like $999+ a month subscriptions or models that are much more expensive than current ones meaning >$150/million tokens
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcusbold set of counterpredictions, from @scaling01:
@GaryMarcus i was talking about OpenAI/Anthropic investors
but the hyperscalers will be fine too
I wouldn't want to make predictions about companies that adopt LLMs to automate or replace some things. not all of them are going to see great results
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcus@scaling01 In “most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns:” does “them” refer to LLMs? and companies = OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, Meta etc?
#980Lisan al Gaib@SCALING01Cold take on what comes next: - OpenAI will flourish - Anthropic will continue to be profitable - Google will not catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI - no chinese company will catch up to Anthropic or OpenAI - the highest tier of intelligence will become a luxury product that only companies and multi-millionaires/billionaires can afford - most of the companies that invested massively in them will have massive returns - SpaceX’s AI will be fine and on par with Google by end of year - Nvidia will become the first 10T company
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GaryMarcusHot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.