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    Researcher Speculates on Profits From AI Pause

    Dimitris Papailiopoulos suggests frontier labs could profit by optimizing existing models if training paused.

    JL
    DP
    2 Sources, 27d ago, first seen 27d ago

    TLDR

    Dimitris Papailiopoulos, Principal Researcher at Microsoft Research AI Frontiers, posted on X that a pause in AI training would likely shift frontier labs toward heavy optimization of their infrastructure and model inference. He expects this focus would let labs serve current models at scale and extract substantial revenue. Papailiopoulos added that he sees a logarithmic relationship between average customer value extracted and model capabilities. The post appears as a lighthearted reply to the pause AI concept and stops mid-sentence in the supplied record.

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    2 Sources, first seen 27d ago

    Combined views

    7.3K

    2 Sources, first seen 27d ago

    48 likes
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    2 Sources

    @DimitrisPapailFunny if "pause AI" happened, then I suspect that frontier labs, in the absence of further training, would optimize the heck out of their infra and model inference. And make a ton of money serving them :) I speculate there's a log relationship between "average customer value extracted" and "model capabilities," and that Sol and Fable sit slightly after the knee of the logarithm. Further, there may be a capability level beyond which every marginal unit of market value extracted would cost far more to develop than the integral of marginal of that value extracted over time from now to the end of time. And that level may be far below RSI. We shall see.
    @jasondeanlee@DimitrisPapail I think it's already happened (so I hear)

    2 Sources

    @DimitrisPapailFunny if "pause AI" happened, then I suspect that frontier labs, in the absence of further training, would optimize the heck out of their infra and model inference. And make a ton of money serving them :) I speculate there's a log relationship between "average customer value extracted" and "model capabilities," and that Sol and Fable sit slightly after the knee of the logarithm. Further, there may be a capability level beyond which every marginal unit of market value extracted would cost far more to develop than the integral of marginal of that value extracted over time from now to the end of time. And that level may be far below RSI. We shall see.
    @jasondeanlee@DimitrisPapail I think it's already happened (so I hear)