Open-weight AI reportedly trails the frontier by about four months

A September 16, 2026 post summarizing Mozilla's report says open-weight AI is about four months behind the frontier, but its usage and revenue shares differ sharply.

The post cites roughly 20% of measured OpenRouter usage for open models versus about 4% of model-layer revenue. It says Mozilla attributes much of that mismatch to pricing, with closed models costing roughly six times more per call at about 90% capability parity. Crucially, it also relays Mozilla's warning that the revenue measurement comes from a 2025 window and predates its 2026 usage data, so the revenue split may be different.

The post also cites a production gap: 51% of open-model deployments reach production, compared with 63% for closed models.