Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small internal team to develop a standalone smartphone app called Arena that would let users make predictions on events using a points-based system for now. The project sits outside Facebook, Instagram and other core Meta platforms and is explicitly experimental, with no commitment yet that it will ever launch or add real-money wagering to take on Polymarket and Kalshi.
News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources
the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg
w/ @yaffebellany
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html
Daily active users across Meta's apps have already hit 3.56 billion, and the shift toward video leaves less room for fresh experiments inside existing products, so leadership is trying standalone efforts like Arena and an AI-photos app instead.
Insiders describe Arena as a top priority that may still never ship, and the company has not disclosed any launch date, team size, early-access plans or whether real-money betting will ever be added.
Many users objected to Meta building a standalone prediction markets app Arena as it adds gambling everywhere and amounts to a stupid bet away from data and VR.
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I’m actually expecting this to happen a LOT more:
A company does X as their bread-and-butter. But now, with AI, they realize “hey we can build quickly.” So they build a product to do Y (where they know nothing about Y.)
I’m sure in some cases it will work, mostly crash&burn tho
News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources
the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg
w/ @yaffebellany
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html
gross and soulless
News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources
the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg
w/ @yaffebellany
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html
importantly, the app is currently experimental and will not include using real money, though insiders have also not fully ruled out a future in which that could happen.
unclear if it will be released.
News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources
the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg
w/ @yaffebellany
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html
meta employees placing YES bets on their own layoffs so they can finally be aligned with shareholder interests
News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources
the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg
w/ @yaffebellany
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html
Yeah - I like the idea of prediction markets + think they have some good applications in theory, but most actually-existing-prediction-markets are just gambling apps which just prey on addicts + are allowed to do so due to crypto PACs
gross and soulless
I don't know why people are ragging on him. Zuck's just trying to answer the question of what to build next.
ZUCKERBERG DIRECTED META TO CREATE PREDICTION MARKETS APP - NYT
Zuckerberg try to be demonic challenge any % speed run
News: Meta is currently building a prediction markets app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi, according to sources
the app, currently called "Arena," will be a standalone offering and was ordered up by Mark Zuckerberg
w/ @yaffebellany
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html
Zuckerberg directed META to create prediction markets app - NYT. $META https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/technology/meta-prediction-markets-app.html?searchResultPosition=1
80% of Kalshi is sports betting!
Sports betting is tearing many families apart!
Soulless indeed
Good thing no one's running the same crypto PAC playbook on AI!
@cwamidon i love living in the future
shoulda taken the under
@MikeIsaac @yaffebellany 👀👀👀
@MikeIsaac @yaffebellany Meta. One word. Useless. They copy everything they buy everything. Still useless. Nobody wants to use meta products. Companies are still advertising and that's where all their money comes from. Let's not talk about metaverse. Or Manus ai. Name anyone you know who uses Manus...
@creatine_cycle welcome to the golden age trust the plan chud
@GergelyOrosz do you really think it's AI? Or is it just Facebook throwing anything against the wall
they did make Facebook games and marketplace and VR glasses, which I think are probably similarly out-of-left-field
@codytfenwick My short version is just that the idea was focused on a specific output/lens (predictive accuracy which AFAIK has turned out OK?), not "what's the full set of externalities we might expect generally"
@MikeIsaac @yaffebellany they're calling it "the worst company in the world"
@MikeIsaac @yaffebellany Only thing Zuck knows how to do is steal other people’s ideas and make his own knockoff (albeit sometime more successful). Ain’t an innovative cell is his body.
@MikeIsaac @yaffebellany gonna have zuck in the trenches by 2027, book it
