US electricity generation data from 2015 to 2025 shows data centers accounting for around 300 TWh by 2025 while AI-related usage remains near zero until a small 2024 uptick
State data indicates no correlation between data center demand growth and electricity prices.
I'm skeptical that we can draw too much from this because data centers are choosing the markets with the cheapest and most reliable abundant electricity in the first place, though obviously we know DCs aren't creating unique electricity cost catastrophes right now.
This is the single most important chart. If AI were driving prices, you'd see a cluster top-right. You don't. States with huge load growth (VA, TX, NV, ND, IA) sit at ~0c change in 5y. States with massive price hikes (CA, NY, MA, CT) have basically NO load growth.