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    Jack Altman Notes Frequent AI Opinion Reversals

    Venture capitalist Jack Altman posted about expert uncertainty in the AI cycle.

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    7 Sources, 33d ago, first seen 33d ago

    TLDR

    Venture capitalist Jack Altman posted on X that no one knows what they are talking about in the AI cycle and that even very smart and plugged-in people continually reverse their opinions then re-reverse them three months later. Walrath wrote that this may be the smartest VC post ever written. Eric Vishria retweeted Michael Walrath's praise and Pete Skomoroch retweeted Jack Altman's post.

    Combined views

    572.2K

    7 Sources, first seen 33d ago

    Combined views

    572.2K

    7 Sources, first seen 33d ago

    3.1K likes
    3.1K likes
    266 comments
    682 saves
    366 reposts
    Jack Altman

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

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    Featured Source
    266 comments
    682 saves
    366 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    7 Sources

    @jaltmaOne of the most important things to know about this AI cycle is that no one knows what they're talking and even very smart and plugged in people are continually reversing their opinions and then re-reversing them three months later.
    @michaelpwalrathThis may be the smartest VC post ever written.
    @ericvishriaRT @michaelpwalrath: This may be the smartest VC post ever written.
    @peteskomorochRT @jaltma: One of the most important things to know about this AI cycle is that no one knows what they're talking and even very smart and…
    @joshkThis happens in every disruptive cycle because the aperture of uncertainty is incredibly wide. Smart people will be wrong. The smarter ones will change their minds. The smartest ones (whom I trust most) have the humility (borne from experience) to know they may be wrong, and speak in probabilities rather than declarations.
    @davidleeI agree. Imo the big difference in this cycle is that the base layer is changing as fast as the app layer For ex, in mobile cycle, it was much easier because you can project how much better the connectivity, battery life, etc would improve. A front-facing camera was a breakthrough.
    @yishanActually, I'm interested in hearing from people who either: - started out being doomer and have reversed their belief - started out not being doomer and have reversed their belief (Sorry I'm using "doomer" for the Yudkowskyian position that we are moving too quickly towards powerful misaligned AI and that it will eliminate humanity; it's just more concise) And what caused you to change your belief? If you want to be more exact, anyone whose views flipped from p(doom) being under 0.2 vs over 0.8.

    7 Sources

    @jaltmaOne of the most important things to know about this AI cycle is that no one knows what they're talking and even very smart and plugged in people are continually reversing their opinions and then re-reversing them three months later.
    @michaelpwalrathThis may be the smartest VC post ever written.
    @ericvishriaRT @michaelpwalrath: This may be the smartest VC post ever written.
    @peteskomorochRT @jaltma: One of the most important things to know about this AI cycle is that no one knows what they're talking and even very smart and…
    @joshkThis happens in every disruptive cycle because the aperture of uncertainty is incredibly wide. Smart people will be wrong. The smarter ones will change their minds. The smartest ones (whom I trust most) have the humility (borne from experience) to know they may be wrong, and speak in probabilities rather than declarations.
    @davidleeI agree. Imo the big difference in this cycle is that the base layer is changing as fast as the app layer For ex, in mobile cycle, it was much easier because you can project how much better the connectivity, battery life, etc would improve. A front-facing camera was a breakthrough.
    @yishanActually, I'm interested in hearing from people who either: - started out being doomer and have reversed their belief - started out not being doomer and have reversed their belief (Sorry I'm using "doomer" for the Yudkowskyian position that we are moving too quickly towards powerful misaligned AI and that it will eliminate humanity; it's just more concise) And what caused you to change your belief? If you want to be more exact, anyone whose views flipped from p(doom) being under 0.2 vs over 0.8.
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