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    Epoch AI Says US GDP Growth Understated by 0.3 Points

    Researchers argue official statistics miss Nvidia profits from fabless chip sales.

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    20 Sources, 37d ago, first seen 37d ago

    TLDR

    Epoch AI researcher Yafah Edelman stated that US GDP fails to track over 100 billion dollars in Nvidia profit. The organization estimates this gap causes reported annual GDP growth to be understated by 0.3 percentage points. The discrepancy traces to accounting for fabless AI chip sales. Researcher Josh You posted that GDP is undercounted by tens of basis points due to this method. Multiple AI researchers shared the Epoch post on X and described the analysis as notable.

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    20 Sources, first seen 37d ago

    Combined views

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    20 Sources, first seen 37d ago

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    123 comments
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    527 reposts

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    No sentiment analysis available yet.

    20 Sources

    @EpochAIResearchWe discovered that US GDP statistics miss most of the value Nvidia adds to the US economy. As a result, GDP growth has been understated by ~0.3 percentage points over the last year.
    @pawtrammellThough it seems next to no one had appreciated this, US GDP simply doesn't count Nvidia's value-add! Taiwan's stats don't either (which they shouldn't), so the world's largest firm is just left out of GWP! This is largely because of a politicized decision over a decade ago. People worried that counting the sort of design work firms like Nvidia do as "manufacturing" would interfere with efforts to promote "real" US manufacturing, and it ended up just not being counted anywhere.
    @YafahEdelmanUS GDP is failing to track over 100B in Nvidia profit. GDP growth should actually be +0.3% of what we think it is.
    @justjoshinyou13US GDP is being undercounted by tens of basis points due to our accounting of fabless AI chip sales! this is pretty crazy!
    @albrgrThis seems crazy if true
    @Miles_BrundageWild discovery
    @iamtraskCrazy
    @altryneThis is kind of a wild discovery, despite being the largest company by market cap in the World, NVIDIA created value is not included in how the GDP is calculated!
    @mattparlmerYou can safely discard most economic stats that governments publish
    @ziv_ravid"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    20 Sources

    @EpochAIResearchWe discovered that US GDP statistics miss most of the value Nvidia adds to the US economy. As a result, GDP growth has been understated by ~0.3 percentage points over the last year.
    @pawtrammellThough it seems next to no one had appreciated this, US GDP simply doesn't count Nvidia's value-add! Taiwan's stats don't either (which they shouldn't), so the world's largest firm is just left out of GWP! This is largely because of a politicized decision over a decade ago. People worried that counting the sort of design work firms like Nvidia do as "manufacturing" would interfere with efforts to promote "real" US manufacturing, and it ended up just not being counted anywhere.
    @YafahEdelmanUS GDP is failing to track over 100B in Nvidia profit. GDP growth should actually be +0.3% of what we think it is.
    @justjoshinyou13US GDP is being undercounted by tens of basis points due to our accounting of fabless AI chip sales! this is pretty crazy!
    @albrgrThis seems crazy if true
    @Miles_BrundageWild discovery
    @iamtraskCrazy
    @altryneThis is kind of a wild discovery, despite being the largest company by market cap in the World, NVIDIA created value is not included in how the GDP is calculated!
    @mattparlmerYou can safely discard most economic stats that governments publish
    @ziv_ravid"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

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