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    Why do people mock assigning probabilities to priors?

    A user questions the mockery, using a hypothetical about Chinese spies at OpenAI and Anthropic to make the point.

    kipplyKI
    Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)T(
    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭MN
    6 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    A user asks why assigning probabilities to priors seems so “dunkable.” As a rhetorical alternative, they suggest saying OpenAI and Anthropic “may or may not have Chinese spies.”

    Combined views

    41.4K

    6 Sources, first seen 2h ago

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    Combined views

    41.4K

    6 Sources, first seen 2h ago

    363 likes
    2h ago
    first seen 2h ago
    363
    37 comments
    51 saves
    17 reposts
    37 comments
    51 saves
    17 reposts

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    6 Sources

    Rui Ma@ruimaIf his purpose is to get every Chinese-born researcher fired from a U.S. frontier AI lab, I do wonder who he actually works for2h
    kipply@kipperriiwhat is it about giving probabilities to priors that people find so dunkable? what is he supposed to say, "openai and anthropic may or may not have chinese spies"?1h
    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭@menhguinif chinese labs did have these secrets, logically: 1. it would show up inside newer models that are already open-source 2. they wouldn't have to distill45m
    Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex1. It's funny but unlike distillation, algorithmic theft is a perfect crime, American labs are too retarded and greedy to publish their algos so the Chinese get the priority no matter how they arrive there. For all we know, V4.1 is a smol Astra. 2. compute is compute34m

    6 Sources

    Rui Ma@ruimaIf his purpose is to get every Chinese-born researcher fired from a U.S. frontier AI lab, I do wonder who he actually works for2h
    kipply@kipperriiwhat is it about giving probabilities to priors that people find so dunkable? what is he supposed to say, "openai and anthropic may or may not have chinese spies"?1h
    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭@menhguinif chinese labs did have these secrets, logically: 1. it would show up inside newer models that are already open-source 2. they wouldn't have to distill45m
    Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞)@teortaxesTex1. It's funny but unlike distillation, algorithmic theft is a perfect crime, American labs are too retarded and greedy to publish their algos so the Chinese get the priority no matter how they arrive there. For all we know, V4.1 is a smol Astra. 2. compute is compute34m